This is a sad sad sad fed...a sad sad sad sad economy. And to think 4 rate hikes were a guarantee just last year going into the end of 2016. So March rate hike is off the table followed by June's and July's so now they are looking at September.... What does the fed know that every rate hike that was coming is now gone....while they are at it why don't they just eliminate rate hikes and keep the fed funds rate at 0% forever. The fed is a waste of time. They lie and make up all these lame predictions just to keep the rate at 0%. I'm telling you the next recession is going to have them in aweeeeee. Enough of this lame Fu$king fed talk. Just like politics all talk and zero action. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/16/fed-...-next-rate-hike-after-march-2016-meeting.html
This has much more to do with the mkt's positioning. As usual, the Fed has managed to royally f*ck over every single macro guy out there. The reason the hikes are getting priced out is because the overleveraged punter community is bailing out of a very consensus trade. It will probably eventually settle down in a very different place to where we are now.
something like that ? ====== Lady Musgrave Island, in the Bunker Island Group, has a unique relationship between the Forest and the birds nesting in them, the birds are known as "Black Noddy Terns" and the trees, "Pisonia Trees". The Noddy's migrate from PNG and fly non-stop and direct to the bunker group because of the Pisonia trees. Over 70% of Australia’s population of Pisonia trees are on the Bunker group island. A colony of some 40.000 visit, nest and fish around this area. The birds arrive late August until May. Usually coinciding with the nesting of the birds the trees grow to seed. The seed pods grow in clusters, with black sticky sappy seeds. When the birds are nesting they get stuck up with the sticky seed pods. They cannot get them off at this stage they can’t fly or fish for food and in turn die. Their remains fertilize the soil. In turn the broad leaves of the Pisonia make excellent nesting sites for the birds. So there is a delicate balance between the life of the birds and the life of the trees. One needs the other to survive. The birds return every year for the leaves, even though many die from the seeds.
Where do you come up with this stuff. The Fed never would "Guarantee" a future rate-hike time table. One of the problems they face right now is that everyone else is lowering rates and weakening their currency relative to the dollar. The Fed does not want to exacerbate that situation. Any one observing Central Bank policy in Europe and Japan would think it not out of the question that the Fed may stretch out rate hikes, despite economic progress in the U.S. The U.S. may have to wait for its trading partners to do a little catching up. The major players in a global economy can't afford to operate in a vacuum. (Did no one tell you, trading is gambling --unless you are Goldman of course.)
No one actually believed the Fed would substantiatively hike rates. The economy would shit all over itself of short term rates were even at 2%.
What's crazy is that they took such a hard line approach to the rate cuts and QE. Now after one meeting and one correction they're running with other direction with their tail tucked between their legs. What's worse is that Yellen is such an ugly gargoyle i'd rather be waterboarded than watch her give a speech.
That's an interesting angle. But isn't the relationship endogenous? Meaning the Fed is leading the "punter community" to inject liquidity and as they do, the Fed responds by not having to respond. The only plausible concern the Fed has is being the lone central bank in the world raising rates while the entire planet pushes more and more negative. I do think that is a major concern.