It's always fun to look at some real trading results. Here are some results of a guy who sells a premium trading service. http://jonboorman.com/premium/ SUMMARY AS OF 7/1/16 OPEN:- Total 9: 8 winners, 1 loser.Average win +16.0%, average loss -1.5%. CLOSED:- Total 255: 109 winners, 146 losers. Average win +17.0%, average loss -6.8%. TOTAL SINCE INCEPTION (1/27/13):- Total 264: 117 winners, 147 losers (44% win). Average win +16.9%, average loss -6.8%. So assuming he equal weighted each position, and the winners took no more time than the losers (unlikely), the return is 41%, though he won't give the numbers: 117*.17 - 147*.07 = 41% That's a 41% return since 1/27/13, the SPY is up around 50% in that time (from about 140-210). So he's not beating the index. So that's your trading guru for you. @guruleaks1 on twitter has some great dirt on what s/he calls the Furus.
Not sure why some traders, including hedge fund managers, think they can predict the markets. Nobody can predict the news and other global and corporate events.
Predicting the (far) future of the market is basically a gamble, in my opinion -- I personally have much greater performance in predicting how the DOW or SPY will behave during the day ahead, in premarket just before the market opens.
Just curious L-L.... Do you ever check the weather in NYC before the trading day? I'm totally serious. There are certain breaks in the weather that seem to just put people in good moods. Car dealers talk about it a lot. Certain days just seem to make people want to "buy". Perhaps after a long period of when hot, gray, or dismal weather snaps to a cool low humidity day. Or a certain kind of break in winter weather geared toward spring? I always wanted to back-test this theory lol. 5 years of NYC meteorological data overlayed on the S&P/DOW. Perhaps if I was stranded on that desert island that one guy spoke of with his $100/day gimmick.... I might just get around to it. You gotta do something on a desert island I guess. There really is something there though. I think. Maybe not. Oh well (futures are red as I type!)
Jon Boorman is a legit guy running an RIA Broadsword Capital, he's not a guru. Most portfolio managers out there don't beat the index every year, so what's your point?
2 and a half years of results isn't enough of a track record? And Boorman is a guru, he sells his premium picks on his site and on marketfy so he is selling his demonstrably sub-par advice for $95 month, that definitely qualifies as a guru. My point is that the gurus have no self-imposed standards. If I were selling stock picks for real money, I would definitely reevaluate my strategy if I were underperforming the market by 10 percentage points over 24 months. Instead he's on twitter pontificating and offering his advice despite a documented track record of failing to beat a mechanical monkey system of buying the largest 500 stocks.