this rally is all about the corona virus curve flattening. If it flattens or it turns downward, the market sky rockets. If this is just a blip, the market will get pounded. I think in a few days, the market will stop caring about the flattening curve and start caring more about earnings guidence. just because the curve flattens or turns downward doesnt mean business wil start spending and hiring and it certainly doesnt mean consumers will start going to restaurants, stores, going on planes, and booking vacations. Business will also be reluctant to invest heavily with the fear of “ what if this virus returns in the fall”.. thats assuming that it goes away this summer.
Reported cases and deaths also, down a great deal in other countries. People should make it a habit to wear masks now when out and about even going to the grocery stores. Look at South Korea and Japan. Also, bring hand sanitizers to clean their hands. Their infections are very low as well as the death rates. The reason is they wear masks. Masks save lives. The reason they discourage people from wearing masks is that there is not enough N95 masks and other protective equipment for doctors. However, masks made of cloth can be effective as well. Doctors have suggest putting paper towels to aid in filtering out any viruses. Pretty inexpensive and practical to do.
This was obvious. Nowwww just wait till they lift the Quarantine. If markets are up over 20% because cases are dropping when they lift the quarantine next month markets will jump another 30%%%% Dow 30k!!! Zero worries !!
It's easy to forget that this market heavily supported by trillions in Quantitative Easing, 10M people have been forced out of work, and the whole world has some form of "shelter-in-place" policy in force. The gold of all financial policies right now, be it monetary, fiscal, economic, or unemployment... is to stabilize. Without all that support that I'd estimate a DOW of 5000--or less.
With that logic no one would return to work office again. Eventually the social butterflies will just come out, heck we had to force them to stay home. Just like 911 where we thought something else was right around the corner this market will climb the wall of worry shaking people out along the way. Be it with fabricated earnings, QE infinity, media pump and dump, trump tweets. When it’s truly over the market will never open back up again. Edit. I’d love for it to go lower trust me. I have orders wayyy below that never got hit.
Nasdaq already above 200SMA. Retail is priced for bankrupcy, but if now it is terrible but not bankrupt, we will already rally. Add in trillions of simulus. This market is a buy for a while. The difference between now and my previous views is that the numbers in NY is getting better, and NY is the bulk of the cases.