Fascinating times for watching Option movements. Not quite a Black Swan Event, but a true learning opportunity. I have a ton of Vertical Spreads (I'm bored). Most are ITM. Some positions have shares of stock in lieu of Long Calls. Naturally my Account Balance is shown as a big loss right now, Pre Market. Options values are not figured into the Balance until the Market opens. When the Market opens, it's like an, "Oh, Never mind) moment, as all the Option Values are figured in, and the Loss looks like a yawn. Opportunities abound, my friends, Long and Short. I hope you have some dry powder. "May you live in interesting times."
Who knows, there are many more great Chinese AIs yet to be noticed. China's programmers have earned the reputation of the world's cream of the crop. Time for the US to learn from the cream of the crop. _________________________ quote : DeepSeek, a one-year-old startup, last week showed off a stunning capability: It presented a ChatGPT-like AI model called R1, which has all the familiar abilities, operating at a fraction of the cost of OpenAI’s, Google’s or Meta’s popular AI models. The company said it had spent just $5.6 million training its newest AI model, compared with the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars US companies spend on their AI technologies. That sent shockwaves through the tech sector Monday. Meta last week said it would spend upward of $65 billion this year on AI development. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, last year said the AI industry would need trillions of dollars in investment to support the development of in-demand chips needed to power the electricity-hungry data centers that run the sector’s complex models. Mark Andreessen, a Trump supporter and one of the world’s leading tech investors, called DeepSeek “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I’ve ever seen,” in a post on X.
The actual AI crash on stocks in that area is stupid, because it is not about how much you can save on equipment for a certain level of AI functionality. It is about to get the maximum out of any equipment. So Deepseek just showed that with the given spendings in AI from US companies they should get much more better AI than Deepseek if used wisely. So this can be also just seen as boomerang that AI will be very soon much better than beyond any expectation when all the money spent and equipment used is 100% efficient (as efficient as Deepseek used it). So instead of -5% to -10% in AI stocks this day can also be seen as the opposite of much more potential in the AI space, so they also could easily do +20% because of Deepseek results! If there is much more fantasy right now in AI because of the shown efficiency of used ressources than AI stocks can easily double or triple this year alltogether. It is good buying opportunity for all AI stocks today !!! Since Deepseek has its results open sourced for everyone, you can be sure the big tech companies will use this latest found efficiency of ressources to their own favor very soon. Soon you will fantastic new results what is possible with AI if all the money spent is used with that seen efficiency! Cause the current level of AI is only a temporary milestone you can expect a much better AI overall in the future. And guess what with the seen latest findings on efficiency and having it all on the fingertips with open source code from Deepseek you can expect a much better AI very soon. It will boost all earnings A LOT on companies using AI.
Deepseek has just shown as a tip of an iceberg what is all possible with AI technology if efficiently used. Now this race is not about spending less and maintaining a certain low level of AI, it is about maxing out the most of AI. So guess what. The price to earnings ratios in the USA are dirt cheap now, because of AI they will have 10 times or even 100 times more earnings because of the AI technology. The shown efficiency from China just showed how much potential there is in AI. As prudent experts in AI said there is almost endless growth with (using) AI possible.
DeepSeek = DeepFake So Trump & Co (Meta, etc.) Announce HUGE AI Program spending... 500++ Billion Dollars... Immediately billions of dollars of dumb Institutional money goes long between SPY 602-608. But, The Inside Hedge Funds and the Primary Broker/Dealers go short between SPY 602 to 608... They buy long Puts up the Yin Yang. Weekend announcement... On no NVDA is toast... Right... So Monday gap down and mini crash... and the Inside Hedge Funds and Primary Broker/Dealers cover their shorts and buy back their puts and GO LONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO A WEEK OF ACCUMULATING. ACCUMULATING TO THE MAX. Like this has not happened a million times in the last 50 years. DeepSeek = DeepFake
Three stocks I own (and their effects on the news)...As I write. Micron (MU) down about 13% IBM down about 1%...Still need someone to figure out how to make those chips profitable. Apple (AAPL) up about 3.5% PS Conagra (CAG) up 4.3%...When in doubt, run to food stuffs!!
Let's see how this plays out, if these bug tech companies slow down Capex spending nvda will drop in half by end of 2025, maybe even sooner especially if the Blackwell chip doesn't see the demand they expect ... nvda us riding so high that any little minor blip and shares will plummet