The S&P 500’s Bull Market Started 11 Years Ago Today. Here’s How Far It Needs to Fall for It to End. By Ben Levisohn Updated March 9, 2020 5:00 pm ET / Original March 9, 2020 11:24 am ET Getty Images 4:58 p.m. The stock market tumbed Monday—enough that circuit breakers were triggered—and the major indexes closed near their lows. Can the S&P 500 avoid slipping into a bear market in the days ahead? The S&P 500 dropped 7.6% to 2746.56 on Monday, its biggest percentage drop since December 2008. The index hit an all-time high of 3386.15 on Feb. 19, less than one month ago, which puts it down 18.9% from its all-time high. Bad, but not officially a bear market, which is defined as a 20% drop from the closing high. The S&P 500 needs to hit 2708.92 to enter a bear market. Neither are the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is down 19.3% from its all time high—and no longer looks to be on a path to 30,000—or the Nasdaq Composite, which is off 19%. Today, of course, is the anniversary of the Financial Crisis low—and the beginning of the bull market that began with it. We’ve had several near-bear markets during that time: A 16% drop in 2010; a 19.4% drop in 2011, and a 19.8% drop in 2018. None have hit the 20% threshold, unless we round up. One of the reasons that the drops didn’t become more sustained was because the U.S. successfully managed to avoid a recession each time. The European debt crisis didn’t cause a slowdown, nor did the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by S&P in 2011. The Chinese yuan devaluation and oil panicin 2015 and 2016 didn’t do it, and neither did the Federal Reserve panic at the end of 2018. The End of the Bull Market?S&P 500 IndexSource: FactSetAs of March 10, 3:46 p.m. ET 2010’12’14’16’18’205001000150020002500300035004000 But a recession is looking more likely this time, Part of the issue is timing. The yield curve inverted in March of 2019, which puts the U.S. economy on schedule for a recession...right about now. But beyond the financial measures, there’s now a double shock from coronavirus and falling oil prices. One was difficult enough. Two might be too much. So we’ll be watching the usual suspects—jobless claims, corporate credit spreads and purchasing managers’ indexes—for signs that a recession is in the offing. But the market itself is a leading indicator. If it keeps dropping, we might have an answer. Write to Ben Levisohn at Ben.Levisohn@barrons.com https://www.barrons.com/articles/he...ds-to-fall-to-enter-a-bear-market-51583767448
I posted long time ago. check the October 2018 correction, peak to trough was like 20.01% something.... this is already a NEW BULL MARKET! also the 2011 drop was over 20%. people just are so brain dead they don't pay any attention.
%% That ; +200dma closes/many closes below=bear. DOW/DIA+ SPY closed many times below 200dma , this month. QQQ loked like it may close below 200dma + did once,MAR+ back above now.SO, bear move or 1 day bear market., for QQQ LOL
That remains to be seen. Depends on how much Trump juices the markets with his 5:30 PM press conference on fiscal stimulus.
not even relevant that much.... spy forward yielding 6% vs. 10 year yield 0.5% the next leg up will blow your socks off.
the voices like mine are out there, even Elon calling the panic is dumb... although me not much of an Elon fan. but once people all realize them been fooled by a couple of nothing burgers, they will buy like there is no tomorrow.
- 20,21 % No. -19,63 % I'd say if a market bounces off 20 % down - that does not qualify as a bull market ending. We'd need to close and trade below.