The Uncomfortable Truth: 90% of the traders lose.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Aaryan Bhatia, Mar 11, 2024.

  1. 90% of traders lose but do we know why?

    The reason is purely lack of information on factors that have an impact on the trade and price movements.

    The world of forex trading might seem complex, but at its core, it’s about understanding how one currency compares to another.

    Price movements in the currency pairs are influenced by economic indicators, market sentiment, and geopolitical events.

    The Starting Point: What Does EUR/USD at 1.1000 Mean?
    When we see EUR/USD trading at 1.1000, it tells us the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. Therefore, to buy 1 Euro (base), you need to spend 1.10 US Dollars (quote).

    Scenario 1: Eurozone Reports Higher Than Expected GDP Growth (Good News)

    Why It’s Good News -> When the GDP growth exceeds expectations, it’s a clear signal of economic strength.

    Higher GDP growth means the economy is expanding more rapidly than anticipated, reflecting higher consumer spending, increased industrial production, and more job creation.

    The Effect -> This upswing makes the Euro more attractive to investors as a stronger economy suggests better returns on investment in Euro-denominated assets.

    As confidence in the Eurozone’s economy increases, so does demand for the Euro, driving up its value on the global stage.

    Simplified Example -> Following the announcement of unexpectedly high GDP growth, optimism surges. This boosts the EUR/USD price from 1.1000 to 1.1200. Now, 1 Euro is equal to 1.12 US Dollars, showing that the Euro has strengthened against the Dollar.

    Scenario 2: The Eurozone’s Economy Grows Less Than Expected (Negative News)

    Why It’s Negative News -> If the Eurozone’s economy isn’t growing as much as people thought it would, it suggests that the Euro might not be as strong in the future. Lower growth can mean fewer jobs, less income, and overall, a weaker economy.

    The Effect -> It can make the Euro less attractive to investors who might start selling their Euros in exchange for a currency from a stronger economy. This selling lowers the Euro’s value.

    Simplified Example -> Following the news of slow economic growth, the demand for Euros decreases. People start selling their Euros, and the price of EUR/USD drops from 1.1000 to 1.0800. Now, 1 Euro is equal to 1.08 US Dollars, showing that the Euro has weakened against the Dollar.

    However, this might not always be the case. Favorable news for the Euro doesn’t always result in an expected rise in the EUR/USD.

    Want to know more? Comment on the thread and let's discuss and learn together!
     
    tf6655 and murray t turtle like this.
  2. maxinger

    maxinger

    Most of us know about that.

    BUT!!!!!

    Many many investors said if you HODL,
    if you hold on for many many years/decades,
    you will be very very very rich.
    Just look at Bitcoin.

    oops! How about EVA, MRNA, grape...?
    Farmers are destroying their grapevines because of over supply.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2024
  3. The key word you used there is "most" and I feel that's where the gap begins to grow. Here we explain FX for starters.

    Let's highlight the following for our readers:

    - Factors that can cause the EUR/USD to move in unexpected directions, even with favorable news for the Euro
    [​IMG]

    The above explains the “why” for the unexpected directions. Next we aim to share the “how” to keep an eye out for such possibilities.

    - Strategies on how to be aware of the potential for unexpected market reactions

    [​IMG]

    The goal of perfecting every prediction is not probabilistic but by staying informed, analyzing market sentiment, and employing sound risk management strategies, traders can navigate the forex market’s unpredictable nature more effectively.
     
  4. With regards to what you highlighted above, I think we miss out on a lot of little details that we often overlook.

    Funny that I have learnt this in CFA. They train one on how to equip all the tricks to make a great portfolios but what they also emphasize on is the importance of 'trade execution' that is not spoken much about generally and I'm certain many of traders are unaware of a lot around this.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. %%
    YOU maybe right Aaryan;
    in that market.
    Good points on your yellow + black post$ .:caution::caution: Your # 1black + yellow comment= very common pattern in stock price earnings announcements.
    But since this is in the ''trading forum.''
    Plenty of markets + business where the business does high % with with good profits.[Different market ,but i remember a real good check\checks on exports with weak US $]
    Not maybe the best time to mention real estate LOL;
    but service businesses tend to do very much better than 90% lose rate .
    And no doubt service businesses , higher %% of long lived profits.
    {BUT I cant scale my metals business like I can ramp SPY, SH some , QQQ.....};
    but the local dealers scale thier metals business with plenty of inventory + heavy equipment..........................................................
     
  6. I find most traders to be incredibly stupid, they mostly don't even know the simplest and most basic concept of the market.
     
    EdgeHunter and comagnum like this.
  7. It is true that day traders are not profit:
    https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/the-data-on-day-trading.php

    in academia as well as the military if the vast number of students fail an exam, an assignment, or fail an entire course we blame the teachers not the students. In this case i think we need to blame the vast relentless torrential amount of stupid educational nonsense that is out there among thousands and thousands of rooms that are sales rooms of which none really trade. According to the global trade titan website of the 2412 trade sites that are listed, only two actually trade being that 99.97% of all futures trade industry it's really a future sales room industry and what they sell stinks.
     
    comagnum, beginner66 and SimpleMeLike like this.
  8. Hello mason macgregorson,

    You are right.

    The ONLY reasons traders lose money is because they do not know any consistent profitable traders making a lot of money to copy and learn from. So they lose money. There is not other reason.

    alot, meaning +$1 million dollars earned trading.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2024
    mason macgregorson likes this.
  9. Hello Aaryan Bhatia,

    It is not rocket science.

    90% lose because they do not know the 10% of traders making money they can copy EXACTLY from and watch them in person and learn from.

    It is very simple
     
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Every brokerage is going to tell you that those 90% take little profits relative to losses.
    There is only one reason to lose over the long run: Negative Expected Value.
    Losses are too big ... Wins are too smalls ... WinRate is too low ...
    The trend can improve all three of them.
    Filtering is one of the key.

    NNTabel said ...
    They'd lose even if you gave them the closing price.
    Proper risk management, bet sizing.

    I've heard ... We trade. We don't bet.
    It's the same thing. We trade a risk for a reward.
    Sometimes we trade infinite loss for a break even.
    Trading is only different as we can trade absurd bets.

    It has no value but to flat our ego.
    What game are we playing ?
    What are we optimizing ?

    Long term growth or short term gratification ?
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2024
    #10     Mar 11, 2024
    PavloCali, Handle123 and Onra like this.