I have spent decades researching and trading gold stocks, with excellent results. As of the end of Q3, all 851 stock trades since 2001 averaged stellar annualized realized gains of +24.1% including all losers! That’s an order of magnitude greater than the general stock markets’ performance over that span. Achieving it required staying focused no matter what. Sadly most of you "traders" lose interest in gold stocks the moment they correct hard. So you foolishly bury your heads in the sand. Big gains are only possible by staying informed all the time. The bottom line is the major gold miners’ fundamentals in just-reported Q3’16 were incredibly strong and bullish. Due to lower all-in sustaining costs and higher prevailing gold prices, this sector’s cash flows generated from operations and actual accounting profitability exploded higher quarter-on-quarter. The fundamental transformation gold stocks have undergone in 2016 has been amazing, and it is only starting. But unfortunately most of you losers aren’t paying attention to the gold miners’ strong fundamentals. Instead they are all wrapped up in the fearful prevailing sentiment. That’s a big mistake as always. While gold-mining operating profitability will decrease in Q4 if gold prices remain low, gold’s young bull is far from over. When it starts powering higher again on weaker stock markets, gold stocks will soar.
Attached is the Profitability Ratios of Barrick Gold which is representative of the group. As you can see, things haven't been going well for the industry as a whole. We know where Gold has been going lately, the upturn that you saw in gold miner financials in Q316 must have been from cost cutting measures. Your prediction for Gold prices still has to pan out.
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You are too confident and underestimate other traders. Trading is not about anticipation, trading is about preparation and execution : be ready to pull the trigger at the right time. But I agree with you. Gold producers are close to a huge rebound. We are few to believe that. When ? today? 1 month? 3 months? If you buy too early, you will lose your shirt, even if you are right. So it makes non-sense to guess a bottom for gold producers (or a top for S&P500). You must find a trigger. Here, gold ounce above $1220 would confirm a classic "bear trap" (or Vic Sperandeo's 2B bottom reversal). CM