http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/the-end-of-the-ends-of-the-world I used to be a plunger. Loved shorting stuff. I had one muscle, and I flexed it constantly. By my rough calculations, I was up about 18% by the time Lehman went bankrupt in 2008. The more turmoil, the better. I was born in a bear market. Literally, in 1974, and figuratively—I learned to trade in the dot-com bust. Seven years into my trading career, I had experienced two crashes. I know lots of people who got rich buying GE at six bucks. I almost shorted it there. So the past six years have been tough on me. I’ve made money, but not a lot. Worse, I’ve been conditioned to expect that whenever I spend a bunch of money on S&P puts, I’m going to get sconed and watch them melt to zero while the market rips higher.
I do not like the guy. I have followed his newsletters for quite a while but he always has one call: Down. China down, US, down, Europe, down, Latin America down. A perpetual call. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
My experience is that permabears are permabears because they want to sound smart. I have never met a smart permabear. I have met many smart permabulls.
yeah, I think he's confused about the concept. you've got to adapt to the different cycles, not flex the same muscle. he seems to realize that but then blames the market for not filling his pockets with cash. crashes don't happen every year.
re: "At one point in my career, I was really good at market timing. Calling tops and bottoms. You just can’t do it anymore. Tops never happen, and bottoms don’t get deep enough to find value. We haven’t had a 10% correction in how long? Honestly, it’s so hard to invest in this environment, I’ve made nearly all my money in the last two years trading FX. It’s the only thing that makes sense." Interesting...I think trading FX is really tough, but he does not.