Following my mostly bearish attitude in natural gas the last few weeks on weak Fall demand and bearish EIAs, some colder weather will return to much of the eastern half of the U.S. And possibly parts of western Europe as we head through November. Two important climatic features I look at (MJO and PDO) will be in colder phases that could help natural gas prices bottom. Source: Twitter and WeatherWealth newsletter by Jim Roemer The negative PDO combined with record global warm oceans has resulted in a situation, in which for most of the last 4 winters, a trader could sell out of the money January-March natural gas call options. However, as the western North Pacific cools (map above--right) and the PDO goes more neutral, historically, November has a colder outlook. Even though the MJO will be in a favorable position for cold weather as well, the record-warming Arctic and El Nino should prevent major extended cold. Am I advocating buying call options in natural gas? Not necessarily? Why? It will take sustained winter cold for more than a month to eat into supplies and winter could end up being warmer than normal later. That means, potentially, waiting for a rally in natural gas in the next couple of weeks and looking to sell call options. Which strike prices should you sell and how do you trade Nat gas in the short term? What is my forecast for the rest of winter for natural gas and all commodities? I invite you (here) to download a 2-week FREE trial to WeatherWealth and see my FREE El Nino report. Jim Roemer Commodity Trading Adviser Meteorologist
This is not wise without a hedge on the other side. As a James, you should know the tale of James Cordier.
NG (and also crude oil) is excellent for day trading due to its wide day range (3%). There are quite a few trading opportunities on most trading days. If you do swing trading, then you will be missing lots of trading opportunities.
Yes, I certainly remember him. Not smart. Will wait for this cold wave to go through next week and will advise clients with respect to bull or bear spreads, etc. Feel free to check out my newsletter on commodities and weather at www.bestweatherinc.com. Have many natural gas producers, traders, etc. around the world All the best, Jim
I will wait for this cold wave to go through next week and advise clients regarding bull or bear spreads, etc. Feel free to check out my newsletter on commodities and weather at www.bestweatherinc.com. Have many natural gas producers, traders, etc. around the world All the best, Jim
What happened to natural gas the past a few days? I exited Friday on the way down and entered today on the way up. But I am clueless on any fundemantal reasons that caused these big swings.
The maps really cold yesterday for November, but I am not buying it. I have some new long-term trading strategies in my newsletter
As mentioned, NG is excellent for day trading. But trading and rationalising/reasoning don't mix. So trade based on what you see from the chart. Obviously, the big boys move the market due to certain reasons (workers strike, climate change, US dollar, supply/demand, politics, Russia opening/closing the valve [last time]....). And when there is major price movement, news reporters might report the news a few hours/days later. The same goes for the crude oil futures. But when there is minor price movement, news reporters might also report the news. Yesterday NG futures day range was big (5%). NG went down significantly during the European session. Then it went up significantly during the US session. I doubt you can get the news.