Hi guys, I've researching Trader Vic's 123 trend change on daily charts. Where do you recommend putting the stop loss? Trader vic doesn't mention this in his book. Would it be 1 tick below/above step 2 of the 123 trend change? Thanks
Run some stats on stop zones around pivot 2 vs pivot 3. Looks like it plays like a double top. Double Top and Bottom https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
simply throw away the book since there is no mention of the stop loss. There are many lousy books that exclude vital details (eg when precisely to enter the trade, where to put stop loss ....). It is because the author doesn't know about it, or he refuses to disclose it, or he doesn't trade at all.
I usually agree, but Vic was a legit trader in the day. He also talked about the 200-day MA, and at the time it was a pretty good long-term indicator. Now the 200-day is so widely watched that the market chops around it and whipsaws too much to use it in any stand-alone way. I don't remember exactly how 123 works, but I'm guessing it worked much better in the late 80s than it does now. When he wrote his book, backtesting was much more difficult so it was hard to codify rules and show performance--except for very simple stuff.
%% Its still a pretty good long + med term trend tool; + inverse indicator, as general guide....................
Very true. Sperando's, now classic, book is not one of those however. It is still relevant, and for those wanting to know the correct way to draw trend lines, I know of nothing better.
%% I remember that part\ his trend method was so complicated i never used his method\LOL. I used the Market Makers Edge/Joshua Lukeman. He used a moving average , avoids trader bias
The correct way to draw a trendline .... is from right (most current data) to left (history). Almost no one does it that way. And although many swings can line up on a line only two points are needed. Which I learned from Tom DeMark. BTW missing an "e" in Trader Vic's last name Sperandeo.
If you really want to take a red pill, read Vic's book (co-written with "Alvaro Almeida") called Cra$hmaker: A Federal Affaire: A Novel. Almeida is the pen name of Edwin Vierra, one of the best Constitutional attorneys in modern times. It's a 3 page novel (with a lot of truth) weighing almost 3 pounds, written over 20 years ago. It couldn't be more pertinent now, even if the authors didn't predict CONVID, Obiden, the Great Reset attempt, etc.