I try to catch tail moves, exhaustion. Hopefully I can cover on retrace if wrong. And at least make little money from counters. Checked : Position Sizing (Not an edge but a requirement) Extreme Chart, Overbought / Oversold (Exhaustion) *Position sizing won’t turn a losing strategy in a winning one. Trying to pick local tops and bottoms actually.
%% Old downtrends like DAL, but use a better ETFs; tech ETF uptrends...............................................................[Edit; position size smaller when you think APR could be good month for UDOW/LOL or DRIP;+ one week up in DOW may not mean much.DRIP most likely goes up more; but inversely, so sell sooner than later]
Currently: #1 Smaller position sizing and trading larger charts (for me this is a must in this environment) #2 Overbought and oversold (Wait for trigger / signal to generate short or long before taking trade so higher probability the overbought or oversold area's get filled in a timely manner) #3 Use a measure of momentum / velocity to determine the strength or weakness of underlining asset to gauge an expectation of the move. #4 I don't typically trade news at all. But making an exception in this case given how low CL is, Coronavirus, Fed acting and it's not doing much and the fact markets were already over done I have been leaning on taking more shorts than long currently.
Of course there is. There's a reason certain people have traded for decades and been consistently profitable almost every day and certainly every month. No, I am not claiming to be one of them yet, I am not certainly not. Your statement is pretty illogical though. You didn't specify any particularly one, but I will pick one and give an example. Just because someone says overbought / oversold doesn't always mean they are using standard methods to calculate it like RSI and etc. There's ways to measure it that are different and in my experience more effective. Not to mention if you're trading overbought or oversold, its best to have several other measure to know when to actually trade them. For example something can be overbought, but if there's "X" momentum or velocity supporting it you would know not to short for the overbought therefore taking out the "false signals". Furthermore it's helpful to have a trigger point to know when the oversold or overbought you're trading towards has a higher probability of means reversion and there's several different ways to do this.