At least the nasdaq. I think the market not only dropped on president Trumps corona news but also the jobs report after looking deeper than just the headline numbers. I think the recovery is simply running out of steam. I still say we fall close to the 200 dma within the next 30-60 days. The reason i say we fall again monday or tuesday is that the naz fell right to the 50 dma again. The more you touch support, the weaker that support becomes.
For goodness sake, please Start day trading, and stop predicting the market. It doesn't matter whether the market is going up or down. It only matter when the market is not moving
Don't concern yourselves about the ones who get their knickers twisted about giving an opinion. You said nothing about going short or long. Just what you think might happen. IM(also)O I also believe Naz might continue most recent trend downward.
In other words, an irrational market running out of buyers. The economy was already fully recovered when Trump took office in 2017. But the market had not topped. Then the Fed wisely began to reduce inventory, which put, as intended, upward pressure on rates. This was followed by brow beating by our resident JACKASS, who happens to live off OPM and who therefore benefits immensely from a cheap dollar and inflation. The Brow beating resulted in a tempering of the Central Bank's plans and a "robust" market driven by incipient inflation. Then, ouch!, Covid hit (Trump's "China Virus"), and we were off to the races with record low interest rates and cheapest dollar. More inflation, and consequently higher highs followed. There would have been no more propitious script to serve the Jackass's interests than this, except for a little snafoo. Mr. Trump had to remain ensconced in the White House to avoid being ensconced in Prison for Tax and Bank Fraud. And then it seems fate took a hand, exactly as it did for Humphrey Bogart in "Casablanca," with, it would seem, a somewhat different outcome; we still don't know who dies, and who will fly away with the beautiful woman.
So the economy leads the stock market? https://www.benzinga.com/general/ed...-stock-market-is-a-leading-economic-indicator
As long as market drops less than 1% (even multiple ones of less than 1%), it will attract greedy buyers as considering that drop as buying opportunity. We need a 4% drop and then another 3% drop and then a flat day. That will scare the S@$T out of the buyers.
Yes, of course it can. Sometime the market leads, sometimes it lags. It doesn't always lead because it habitually becomes more irrational near the ends of economic cycles.. There is substantial market hysteresis. The current U.S. market is a wonderful example of the market lagging the real economy. Once you recognize that markets are almost always irrational, i.e., too low or too high, you will understand that Markets are nothing like text book markets, which are supposed to rationally anticipate the future health of the economy. Understanding this will help you make money if you are an investor, but not so much if you are a trader. But even if you are a trader, it can help you avoid trouble. The best discussion of these phenomena is in Soros's writings, which see. Markets do sometimes correctly anticipate turning points, but they also sometimes incorrectly anticipate them. That's why there is risk. Many decisions aren't rationally based on accurate knowledge; they are based on emotional response to what has happened. Markets that are going up tend to be bought;markets that are going down tend to be sold. It's basically dog track mentality that rules in the short run, and in the long run we are all dead.. Ultimately, inflation will drive markets to higher and higher nominal peaks, while in nominal terms, GDP will grow as well and on top of that, for a large population, fully developed economy there will be some small, real growth in GDP, assuming population grows. Long range investors depend on this to keep them from losing to inflation and hope to exit when the market is irrationally high, which is most of the time. The economic cycle, and thus the market cycle, rides on top of this long range trend.
S&P looks like it is in 5 day balance. Not really shaken too much by presidential COVID news or jobs report. Clearly above last week's range, never could break into it. Nasdaq looks the weakest of the three, on the low end of last week's range, but still clearly above the prior week's range. Barely even tested the prior week's range in overnight session earlier in the week. Russell looks the strongest of the 3. Clearly finishing on top of last week's range. I think market will have a good start on Monday as it shrugs off the C19 "president is really sick and dying" fake news. Probably sideways until the election.
Two major components of market activity on Monday will be 1. Presidents Trump's health condition 2. Progress on stimulus talks I speculate that Trump will be doing well. And that there will be talk about stimulus voting taking place sooner than later. Given the above being positive, I anticipate respectable gains for all indexes for at least the first 2 hrs of trading on Monday.