The 90% at 1:1 RR is a temporary condition. It will stabilize around 70% if it's a winning system. Many scalpers who arrive at 65-70% w/ 1:1 as an overall average do so in varying ways, not necessarily because they consistently put a stop and target equal distances away from each entry. You can get 90% at 2x reward vs 1x risk in a strong trend (e.g., closing price trending to one side of 20 ema). The reason it's (90%) unsustainable is not because the method breaks down over time. It's the false positives which bring the win-rate down (i.e., you think you're taking a trade in a continuing trend or what you think is the first phase of a new trend but you're not). That's what gives the 40-60% win rate long-term. However, the reward to risk ratio still remains in an area that puts the bread on the table. It's very low odds to lose on a trend trade when you actually are in a continuing trend (duh). You're far better off accepting that there's a basic math to the markets, things which the market will let you get away with on a short-term basis and things which will not pan out long-term. You'll save a lot of time and money by just accepting them, not by thinking you're special and will find "a glitch in the matrix". There's examples of traders on ET who have an overly high opinion of their guessing ability but suffice it to say the markets eventually correct their gross error in self-assessment of trading competency.
Yes this is what I'm thinking, therefore I wanna try to get a higher risk:reward ratio, with a lower (but decent) win rate. "You'll save a lot of time and money by just accepting them, not by thinking you're special and will find "a glitch in the matrix"." I don't feel I'm special, if I'm special I would have like 70% win rate with 1:10 risk:reward ratio. I feel a 70% win rate with 1:3 RR would be the goal and dream for me, however there's still a lot of work to be done and experience to be gained!
oh,yeah?? you trade with sth that even mathematicians find hard to define.. so what's your IQ ?? must be high I guess..
I believe if you have 100s of trades over the past 1-2 years market cycles, you should be good. Are you comfortable with the drawdown of these 100s trades that led to 90% win rate? What is your drawdown of the 90% win rate strategy?
There's one person who is consistently publishing all of his trades, claiming to get around 70% winning pct area with a 4 to 1 reward to risk ratio (you would call this a 1:4 RR). His name is Roberto. He trades bigger name stocks, one of Ross Cameron's trader dudes, favors mainly downtrend sell-offs starting 3 min after the open. Apparently, he makes 100-150K a year doing this. He posts on Ross's "Warrior Trading" YouTube channel, on Fridays, full-week summary. Here's the latest clip: And on the contrary. There's a lot of people on ET who think they're special. They're so special that they think explaining how they trade, the signals they take, will adversely affect their future outcomes. If you have more then 2 nickels to rub together, you should be trading futures, not Forex. [NOTE: I use the word "you" and "your" a lot in my posts. Usually, I mean it in the impersonal sense instead of saying "one", not in the personal sense as in YOU in particular. So yeah, I could re-word posts so that they sound more milk-toasty impersonal, but given the overall level of discord on ET, I'll pass.]
I don't get what the issue is... with a 80-90% win rate on a 1:1 RR being traded live already, what more are you asking for? You can compound the crap out of it until you hit liquidity and slippage problems.