1:1 Risk:reward gives me a 90% win rate but...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by metatrader54, Jul 4, 2019.

  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    I am not the one who can answer your question precisely since I am an amateur newbie trader, not a professional or a statistician. Your method could be skewed by the bull market, or world economic situations (QE everywhere) of the last 10 years.

    I can speak from personal experience. My method worked, for the past 6 years trading options, but if I used it to backtest the period from 2007 to 2009, it failed. It also failed going back to 2000. In that regard, I can conclude it probably won't work going forward. I don't think I have an edge, just luck.
     
    #51     Jul 6, 2019
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    Yes.

    Yes.
     
    #52     Jul 6, 2019
  3. What time frame are you doing? Because I focus solely on 1 hour and below, so "skewed by the bull market, or world economic situations (QE everywhere) of the last 10 years.", don't think it affects my method that much, I do long and short.
     
    #53     Jul 7, 2019
  4. If you get at least 2 signals per day on average, 6-7R should be plenty risking 1-2% every trade. Not sure why you are so unsatisfied with your results unless you are trying to double your account every other week.
     
    #54     Jul 7, 2019
  5. Yea, but always shoot for improvements, what you can do better, psychology, system etc.

    Don't want to be stalemate and get complacent or such.
     
    #55     Jul 7, 2019
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Swing trade, days.
     
    #56     Jul 7, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  7. %%
    Your chart hints @ trend following plan that can be + has been profitable for long periods of time- with stocks /ETFs anyway.May or may not work for forex.

    Many millions/billions are made that way off monthly/yearly charts/stocks/ETFs, using your line chart. May or may not work with forex; I remember Don Bright Daytrading Co did not like forex.He used stocks/S&P 500 futs.
     
    #57     Jul 7, 2019
    metatrader54 likes this.
  8. Update: Been testing another method of exits, combining higher time frame with lower time frame entries and risk management. Seems to be working well, win rate is lowered slightly but am able to easily get 2-3 RR per trade.

    Of course not enough forward test sample size to confirm anything, but will continue forward testing.
     
    #58     Jul 15, 2019
    birdman and murray t turtle like this.