100k in May MSTY comparison...why hodling no longer makes sense.

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by wxytrader, Aug 8, 2025 at 11:54 AM.

  1. deaddog

    deaddog

    Well BTC is by your own calculation up17K and MSTY is up around 3k if you factor in divys.
    What is your point?
    BTW are you going to update your MARA thread.
     
  2. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    If we’re counting unrealized losses as losses, then by the same logic we can’t count unrealized gains as gains — it’s the same rule. Unrealized losses aren’t “losing money” any more than unrealized gains are “making money” until they’re realized.

    From May to present, Bitcoin (via IBIT) had one of its best-case scenarios: a sharp, rapid price climb of ~$17,000 USD per BTC — gains that happen too quickly for dividends to compound much.

    For MSTY, that same window is actually worst-case: price moves up so fast there’s less time for its high-yield monthly payouts to snowball.

    Even in that “worst” environment, MSTY’s cash income was $25.6K without DRIP or $28.1K with DRIP, compared to IBIT’s ~$17K unrealized gain.

    Since inception, MSTY absolutely crushes a passive IBIT investment because time — not price spikes — is where high-yield compounding dominates.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2025 at 4:55 PM
  3. deaddog

    deaddog

    I agree with you since inception. (Coulda.shoulds, would.) LOL

    Since May MSTY hasn't faired so well.
    Yes you got 25.6K in payouts (Well not realy because of withholding tax)
    The value of your MSTY shares is down from 24.50 to 19 bucks.
    This is while BTC was rising, What happens if as you are forecasting that BTC corrects back to 70k.
     
  4. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    MSTY will just meander around like it did the last time we were at 70k. MSTY doesn't over react to btc moves in either direction. If the move takes what 3 months? 6 months?

    Chat gpt says:

    Month | Price (USD) | Shares | Coupon (USD/share) | Dividends (USD) | Unrealized P/L
    Aug → Sep | 18.50 | 5,988 | 1.50 | 8,982 | -6,234
    Sep → Oct | 17.00 | 5,988 | 1.70 | 10,180 | -15,894
    Oct → Nov | 15.75 | 5,988 | 1.90 | 11,377 | -22,665
    Total | | | | 30,539 | -22,665

    If Bitcoin drops from $117K to $70K (-$47,000 unrealized loss on a $117K position),
    MSTY in the same period would drop from $19.54 to $15.75 (-$22,665 unrealized loss)
    but still pay $30,539 in realized dividends, leaving a net positive gain of $7,874.
     
  5. demoncore

    demoncore

    It's not going to act as a stable. It shows how little knowledge the guy has in the space.
     
  6. demoncore

    demoncore

    Treating all PNL as realized... MSTY underperformed by 40%. The only time that unrealized matters is when filing. Last time I checked the divs were taxable. Assume IRA.
     
    jys78 likes this.
  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    As far as I can tell most of the distributions are return of capital and are tax free in Canada.
    It does drop the ACB and is a book keeping nightmare. If there is a capital gain when sold it will be taxed as a cap gain. There is a 15% witholding tax that may or may not be credited depending on where the position is heald. In a retirement account it isn't returned.
     
  8. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    40%??? Anyway logically unrealized losses aren't losses any more than unrealized gains are gains... So we should just omit them. In that case MSTY wins 30k to zero.

    Do I have to post a link to the yieldmax tax documents for you guys? @deaddog

    TAX Documents – YieldMax ETFs
    https://www.yieldmaxetfs.com/tax-documents/

    There you will find all the information about what's dividends and what's ROC on every payout. I already posted a bunch of these... you guys need to pay attention!
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2025 at 7:08 PM
  9. deaddog

    deaddog

    ROC reduces your ACB. You'll be taxed when you sell if there is a capital gain.
    Once you get to the point that your capital is returned then you are taxed as capital gains in the year you receive the distributions.
     
  10. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Nice! Also why would I sell if this is up? Dividends would be up as well.