1980 silver high??

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by murray t turtle, Apr 21, 2011.

  1. I though all time hi in 1980 was really close to $50 dollars;
    actually wrote ''about $50'' some years ago.Looks headed higher than $50+, thats the trend direction, not a prediction.

    But FEB Futures mag[stocks futures,options...] has it about $42.00 or 42.50 on page 35:cool: Major support,40 year charts= @25, & $ 25 + plus

    Curtis Faith[turtle] has a comment on it;
    in one of his books, I'll check it /hunt it {LOL}there also.:D
  2. 1) People tend to refer to the COMEX high price, ~$50/ounce.
    2) The CBOT price may have been slightly higher than that.
    3) The deferred months may have traded even higher than the front-months. :cool:
  3. I have $48.80 on my continous monthly chart, which reflected the F-80 contract, at the time.

    It wouldn't surprise me though if bots ran it up to a $50.00 - $50.15 print, followed by a crash down towards $21 multi-year support.

    Silver's Charlie Sheening it right now!

  4. $50 is the nominal price hit in 1980. Therefore in real inflation adjusted terms the $50 all time high is much much higher in todays terms.

    I believe gold's previous ATH hit $850ish back in 1980, which in inflation adjusted terms was somewhere around $2200 in today's money depending on where you get your data from. (I read that in more than 1 magazine)

    I haven't read any inflation adjusted figures for silver yet but if we use the same math as the gold figure, Silver's all time high is somewhere around $130 in todays money.

    So In reality gold, nor silver has come close to breaking their old bubble records.

    Not only that, todays' market has made it much easier (read ETF) for the regular joe trader to buy these commodities, so demand could be much higher, prices could blast their old records. But i somehow doubt they will, but you never know, I aint gonna short or call a top tho.
  5. ==============
    Thanks, NasdaQQQ, Chicago C,Ro87/all;
    Lot of ways to measure a trend. Its up with 7 higher lows on daily candlechart/6 higher daily closes:cool: Unusually strong & /strong buy volume.

    But sell /bear volume is uptrending , which is bearish:D ;
    could be a real roller coaster.200 day ma is far away but still up..........................................................................................
  6. =======================
    Interesting price difference.[$50/$50.15+/]

    I got a quote from a local[new] dealer on some silver coins, lately[when it was $40 cash area,] he said looks like a pullback [$40 area];
    and then gave me a bid price reflecting the pulback he thought would happen.:D
  7. ==================
    That makes your chart reading slighly more bullish /uptrending than mine, after this thread was written , put the all time high @$50.15 area.

    And if volume/ price doesnt hold @ 200 dma area;
    $21.21 more likely also..........:D
  8. IMO Inflation-adjusting the old highs for Gold, Silver, the DOW is just plain silly. The old highs were set for reasons particular to the time they were set and unless we can demonstrate that the reasons for the present prices are the same as they were in a previous period there's no relation between prices then and prices now.

    BTW "there were more buyers than sellers" doesn't qualify as a 'reason' because the buyers/sellers relation is synonymous with price movement- we need to know the reason(s) there were more buyers than sellers.

    The recent high on Silver was almost exactly what it was 31 years ago because a swarm of daytraders believed that high had some historical meaning. Silver may sink back to $10 or resume climbing and go to $200 - depending entirely and exclusively on the current circumstances. Traders' beliefs about what prices should be are generally fickle and reactive and are only a minor factor in determining ultimate highs/lows.
  9. ==============
    Good points,HH.
    SLV buyers maybe a factor;SLV does have more uptrending on the yearly charts, but not many years of data. are available

    Some are forcasting a price target of $56.88 for Citigroup;
    it may make it, not a prediction. Two[2] data providers forgot to mention the old Citigroup /stock split $550+/ high;
    was much closer to $55/+:D
    SLV... has, in the past, better uptrends than Citigroup;
    not a prediction.:cool:
  10. AFAIK the back months were at a huge discount because it was a delivery squeeze in the front month.
    #10     May 24, 2011