2025 Year of the Blue Snake - cocogxng

Discussion in 'Journals' started by cocogxng, Feb 12, 2025.

  1. cocogxng

    cocogxng

    3/17/25

    $5041.54
    $5063.61
    -----------
    +$22.07
    +0.44%

    not much movement today. slow market.
     
    #31     Mar 21, 2025
  2. cocogxng

    cocogxng

    3/26/25

    $5063.61
    $6009.39
    -----------
    +$945.78
    +18.68%

    just noticed I had dates wrong for some of my posts. i didn't trade the past two days. two days ago, there just wasn't much movement. Yesterday, I was too tired to stay up to trade. wow. today. everything went my way. every single trade. Every call I made. moved exactly. played it safe, taking early profits and trying to stay small. and still made almost 20%. if I played aggressive, woulda been up around 80% I would assume. man getting arrogant already. but its been such a satisfying day.. hadn't had a day like this in a while.
     
    #32     Mar 26, 2025
  3. cocogxng

    cocogxng

    3/27/25

    $6009.39
    $2274.31
    -----------
    -$3735.08
    -62.15%

    welcome back? fuck me
     
    #33     Mar 27, 2025
  4. cocogxng

    cocogxng

    I always knew but always told myself i can change and manage risk. thats why i put the $500 per trade rule. well today i did $500 and added in another $500 an at the end just put in the rest $3200. IDK what the hell happened to risk management. I always do this.

    I finally decided to reach out for help. My trusty slave chatgpt.
    According to him, doing 500 per trade actually limits my growth based on my win/loss data of the past 1.5 months. instead, he said use 25-35% of my capital and limit my losses to (i forget) and my account would be growing unrealistically. well duh if i can limit my losses i woulda been a millionaire during college. So after multiple back and forth with chatgpt and using excel to verify, I've come to a new risk management plan that satisfies my high risk high reward thirst and also not blow up my account.
    Here are the assumptions for my sample result:
    1. 3 separate trades a day. Trade 1,2 will use 35% of my previous day capital. Trade 3 will use the remaining 30%.
    2. win value between 3-30%, loss value between 5-50%
    3. win ratio of trades is 75%.

    I'm pretty comfortable with a trade win ratio of 75. I actually think I can go 80% and even higher to close to 90%.
    My trade wins have been easily 10-20 an even higher then 30, but I kept the assumption to top at 30.
    When I have losses, its easy to have 10-20 but anything higher than 30 is only when I dont cut my losses an be stubborn.
    So my new plan is cut my losses, since data shows if I just dont go all in an have big losses, based on my win ratios, I will still win at the end. And I'll win big.

    So we'll see how this goes.
     
    #34     Mar 27, 2025