most credible blah: he is not... calling events since the beginning of 2005: wow, thats a v.long time... 100% certainty: dude, get a brain... having said that, i do read his blog from time to time cause its a viewpoint, thought-provoking etc, and there is no reason not to listen to a different viewpoint unless its total bollox of course... but roubini IS losing it in this one... for one, seems the Fed can only 'panic', cause they are so unlike roubini the cool armchair visionary... ever wonder what will happen if the Fed DOESN'T panic after all?... bah, never mind, odds are, they'll be a recession before the turn of the century anyway, and if not, roubini will be so dead by then that it won't make no difference brotha... talk is cheap, lets indulge...
Now is too early to move. We will rally in August for a while -- Friday's GDP response is proof that this market only cares about one thing - a stop to rising interest rates, at the expense of anything. And that, Mr. Bernanke will deliver, or at least signal an end to. Wildcard here is oil price - if oil is still at $75 or below, rates stop. If oil is up to $85-95 on some Iran crisis, rates rise. Its really that simple. Our inflation is obviously entirely energy driven. Hell, Bernanke could go on TV tommorow and say we're permanently done raising interest rates, but 2007 is recession time. And you know what would happen? the market would rally. After the rally and the reality sinks in to the market, I will load up on OTM puts on all the weak sectors. Good plan. The market is so impulsive.
Here is his resume: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/referen.htm ... just another talking head - nothing magical ... ... at this snapshot in time, his hypothesis seems valid, but how do you account for "surprise" in an economic theory? ... also, China might be the one who "sneezes" or catches a cold first.
A novice I am putting most of my capital towards this trade. A Trader I agree with Roubini and have positions that implement both tatics and strategies to profit from the slowdown. A novice Roubini didn't win a Nobel prize for nothing. A Trader You know, one has to wonder, why you motorized dildos don't take a moment to ask the obvious questions when a person posts this kind of crap and then attempts to generate some authority by claiming that the author is a Nobel Prize Winner.
I don't understand what you're getting at. I agree with all of this whole-heartedly. Why do you say I must not be from here? You're helping me by telling me to buy gold? Part of my overall strategy includes buying gold, corn, oil, and sugar... But I'm sticking to the indices as far as equities are concerned. I didn't feel the need to disclose my entire investment strategy.
I forgot that I need to qualify everything I say on this site or else inaccurate assumptions are made about my approach or thought processes. I also am "implementing both tactics and strategies to profit from the slowdown" by utilizing risk management and asset allocation principles. I am however violating a key rule and committing a significant % of my overall net worth. I understand the risks and am willing to take them - everyone has a different risk profile eh?. I'm convinced the oncoming recession is a certainty and am building my positions accordingly. I acknowledge your claim about solvency, but don't understand why you think out of the money puts won't work. Can you explain yourself? B/C I disagree. Being long puts puts a ceiling on my risk of loss, so why would I be worried about solvency during a market rally? I'm not selling futures or shorting shares. I don't care what type of fluctuations will occur, by Q1 of next year the writing will be on the wall and there'll be no where for the market to go but down and either stay down, or go WAY DOWN before the market begins to recover.
honestly dude, your none of that... and thats why your on top right now, cause europe chose to self-destroy notably... but hopefully things will get better 'soon'...when the europeans manage to force higher degrees of integration upon themselves... not on a 25 countries basis, but say 5 for starters, then 15, etc... pretty daunting endeavour, but one that has to be done, after 2 WWs a necessity...