A gift. Thank me after you get rich.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by BrandNewTrader, Jul 30, 2006.

  1. interesting. have you noticed lately whenever the equity indexes do well, the US dollar shrinks?

    Rallies right now are completely driven by optimism of stop to fed rate increases. But that very stop is a dollar weakening force.

    The fed can't control inflation pressure from energy prices. It can only stimulate recession to stop inflation by causing demand destruction to energy.

    this is a signal, Mr. Bull. Its not a signal for years of bullish growth.
    #41     Jul 30, 2006
  2. simon2008


    "having you concur REALLY bothers me"
    #42     Jul 30, 2006
  3. :) everyone here needs to be right. what a pissing match.
    #43     Jul 30, 2006
  4. Just in time for a deflationary crash. Oct. 2002 lows revisited?

    Look at the Japanese Index from 1990-1998. This should be similar to what happens to the US markets.

    We are in Japans 1996 period diverging down.

    Japan is diverging up with China and Asia.

    Place your bets ladies and gentlemen this should get interesting.:D
    #44     Jul 30, 2006
  5. just subscribing. Will make an interesting read.
    #45     Jul 30, 2006
  6. problem is the gov has its hands tied. The deficit is way to big to even allow the current rate of spending to continue, especially in a recession. We ran a DEFICIT during an economic boom when we should have been saving the surplus for a rainy day. During the Clinton era we ran a surplus and Bush proceeded to spend it all and much much more in the process.

    This coming recession wont be like the post-bubble "lite" recession of 2001. During that period, the us consumer was resilient as a result of high savings and recent strong growth in real wages. Difference today is the consumer doesnt have any savings and has been pulling value out of their homes in order to spend and increasing their debt load (spending money they dont have) - they think they are pulling out equity, but only increasing and prolonging their indebtedness! Once the energy costs feed through the system and housing slump really set in you'll be surprised at how overextended the avg US consumer is. Consumer spending is in real trouble and Fed is going to have to raise rates or pause (way too optimistic) to contain inflation. So consumer demand is out the window. What about corporate demand?

    No way - businesses will have to either cut costs in line with lower sales/demand forecasts or risk having their stock prices tumble.

    It's all going to happen very slowly. Wake up in Q1 2007 and realize we are in the midst of a recession and protracted bear market.
    #46     Jul 30, 2006
  7. What kind of question is that? If the market goes up they decrease in value. But I addressed this already. Did you read my post?

    The market isn't going up over the next 12-18 months. Recession, bear market - that usually means stocks lose value. That's what's oing going to happen, not some year-long bull rally based on... ??? declining corporate sales and weakening consumer spending? How about the record deficit, slumping housing sector and record (and semi-permanent) energy prices? These are real things that are just beginning to go bad and will get worse very quickly over the next year. Panglossian Optimists. Hoping and praying for a continuation of bullish trends in the face of increasingly irreversible bearish indicators. Let's deal with reality here, especially since this could get ugly for the working class people of this country who have failed to save adequately and will be hit hard at home and at the pump. Bad times ahead.

    Remember, I'm talking about going long puts, not shorting S&P futures. I don't have to worry about leverage working against me - short term rallies are just opportunities to buy cheaper puts.
    #47     Jul 30, 2006
  8. marketing fluff.
    #48     Jul 30, 2006
  9. the US markets aproached all-time highs this year.

    what good is calling bad times when you have to keep rolling your timeframe?

    i predict there will be a global economic slowdown in the next 100 years. give me a cookie.

    if you can't offer a 60-90 day window, get lost. (sorry, but this repeated prognostication that is always "over the next hill" is tiresome..)
    #49     Jul 30, 2006
  10. November 2006 looks busy.
    #50     Jul 30, 2006