Listening to an academic re stock market is hazardous to your financial wellbeing. Anyone remember Didier Sornette and his prediction of a coming crash in 2003? "The prediction was made in August 2002, based on the data up to the end of August 2002 and we predicted that the stock market will go up until the first to the second quarter of 2003 and will then start a long descend until around the end of the first semester of 2004. That is what I can say at the present time."
Still compiling. Forecasting the models and approximating the time(within months) isn't my problem, translating this into a practical method of extracting a profit is. Also maintaining clean data to pinpoint a smaller window. Looks like alot of assets are leaving the US markets(no revelation there). So follow the money or play the US market to the down side.
Okay granted, I think the market has more downside risk than up and options are not my cup of tea. call me crazy but: 1)from my experience the fastest way to lose a lot of money is to insist "the market " cannot do "X" and wager heavily without a contingency plan. 2) Your assertion of "short term rallies are just opportunities to buy cheaper puts. " is just averaging a loser. good luck with that mr Wharton
hmm I distinctly remember that argument predicting doomsday right around the corner 25 yrs ago. Glad to see somebody's crystal ball working with such clarity.
Yes one of the Efficient Market Hypothesis crowd. Projections based on a flawed premiss are guaranteed to be incorrect. Projections modeled on skewed data will yield erroneous results. Then again these guys have a daily pier diem that equals my house payment.
I predict that you would be better to delay your long term (90 day+) stock purchases until late September or October instead of purchasing now.
OK, so that was 60+ years ago, because Keynes died in 1946. Also: "Keynes was ultimately a successful investor building up a substantial private fortune. He was nearly wiped out following the Stock Market Crash of 1929 but soon recouped his fortunes." This is funny, because I can except that an economist is not a good trader, but they should see at least the longer term trends. By the way I actually agree with this economist and I don't see anything bright in the economic future of the USA...
If you took all the people that fell asleep listening to economists and laid them end to end, they would be more comfortable.
hey I agree with the premse of your assertion about economists and trading. at least it was under 100 yrs. sometimes I think of rhetorical questions as challenges.