AAPL: Buying the Dips!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by cactiman, Oct 6, 2012.

  1. i totally don't watch the news on cnbc for that reason.. its complete noise... some people think when the positive news has less effect things are turning around. sometimes i think there is an element underneath we just haven't yet realized..
    i do like that idea of "maybe it was a popular indicator of overbought" kinda thing.. i'd rather trade stochastically with a good risk reward relationship.. follow the larger trend in a mean reverting way.. and if i'm wrong my money management will keep me in the game.. and my risk reward will pay for more then my losers on wins.. i am ever trying to figure out what a market maker would think..
    wheres the risk wheres the risk wheres the risk wheres the risk wheres the risk..
    #41     Oct 8, 2012
  2. Ha. Thanks man. Yea it was my online poker handle. Looking back its very likely my reasons for entering the trade were less than sound, lol.
    #42     Oct 8, 2012
  3. over valued. bubble

    even unimployment is 5, the market will still drop. why, bubbles everywhere, too hot, inflation everyehere.. FOMC will hike rates.

    #43     Oct 9, 2012

  4. That one line taken out of context sounds simplistic, of course.
    I was just trying to make a point about the psychological difficulties involved in buying pullbacks.

    We all know there are many more reasons for stocks to fall than just "bad news or rumors".
    Though in this case I think the "scare factor" is definitely involved:
    "Apple (AAPL) shares fell for a third straight trading day on Monday, as investors fretted about supply constraints for the company's new iPhone 5 smartphone." (IBD)

    But, being a Trend Trader, I believe all technical, fundamental, and emotional factors are constantly being combined into "The Price", which is the bottom line, and all that really matters.
    #44     Oct 9, 2012
  5. It is actually down since September 18-20. Even it is 10-11% down, it did not generated any scarceness and panic yet. The average volume remains the same which means there is no any unusual activity, emotions are not involved yet. I would say there is still a room to go down. When I see at least 15-20% of increase in volume I may say the panic begins - price hit level of stop-losses of major traders. Only after I see volume goes down (panic is over) I would start looking at trend following indicators, considering buying and following the trend.
    #45     Oct 9, 2012
  6. Added to my AAPL long position at 630.66 & 625.59.
    Trying to catch a "falling knife", or is 623.55 as low as she'll go?
    Will be finding out soon enough....
    #46     Oct 9, 2012
  7. Good point about the volume.
    100 Million per week seems to be the norm.
    Above that could be cause for concern.
    Seems like an orderly pullback to a Higher Low so far to me.
    We'll see what happens with the upcoming iPad Mini and Earnings Announcements.
    Will know more by the end of the month.
    #47     Oct 9, 2012
  8. That will be okay, as long as it doesn't do it by Nov 16. :)
    #48     Oct 9, 2012
  9. So far AAPL has pulled back -11.56% (705.07 to 623.55).

    Earlier pullbacks over the last 2+ years were:
    -18.92% (641.25 to 519.95)
    -14.85% (424.88 to 361.77)
    -12.73% (402.77 to 351.51)
    -12.57% (353.61 to 309.17)
    -10.59% (363.34 to 324.87)
    -11.44% (264.85 to 234.55)

    We're currently in this -10.59% to -18.92% pullback range.
    If AAPL falls to 600, which is my guess for "as low as she'll go", it would be a -14.90% pullback, which is still well within this 2+ year range.
    #49     Oct 9, 2012
  10. The iPhone 4S/iPhone 5 growth rate has turned negative. This is not a growth company anymore.

    I am not trying to be a detractor, I am just pointing out that growth is not unlimited for anyone.
    #50     Oct 9, 2012