There are still 50 analysts with a buy or strong buy rating on AAPL, 6 for hold and 2 for sell or underperform. This is quite concerning for longs
just remember value is a slippery idea in the first place.. if you take a company that has had outrageous growth in the past 5 to 10 years.. and it becomes the largest capitalized stock why does it not make sense that it trades at a very fair value.. price to earnings is a metric used to find relative value.. but how to you relate apples value when there is no other company relative to it.. plus what makes you think at this valuation that its not expensive if the growth rate slows down a bit... when you buy stocks your buying into future fundamentals aren't you? so a conservative view would be that its not pricing in doubling its earnings forever..... i'm not an apple bear or bull.. i just don't care.. full disclosure i'm completely flat apple and i generally trade close to neutral.. i find it sort of odd that a company of such magnitude exhibits so much volatility.. think about the valuation changes that happen so abruptly.. how many billions of dollars in valuation change on a 6 percent drop in the stock.. does that sound right? to me right now on a longer term perspective i would see apple consolidating for a while.. no catastrophies.. but just continued below benchmark returns with a small dividend.. theres nothing sexy about it anymore unless you are a vol trader looking for liquidity and movement.. cause obviously movement you get!
If you believe in the DCF models,AAPL is being priced at a 7% 10 year growth.Thats essentially how MSFT is valued. Not making a case for AAPL one way or the other,though it would appear it is getting "reasonably" priced... GOOG on the other hand
It's so refreshing when other ET traders [those who actually have some experience over more than a couple years] actually make intelligent replies and offer insight or analysis without either sarcasm, rudeness or critiquing other posters. So thanks... and I agree with you 100% ! I spend all my time deciding what would I do if I was a computer model and what is likely to happen later this week and Friday with monthly and/or weekly option expiry. Then I trade mostly the same 8 stocks / indexes for past 2 years. NDX, SPY, APL, AMZN, FFIV, LULU, GMCR, NFLX and toss a couple more in if they are "in play". This allows me to know the patterns on a stock like say AMZN; and in fact there are patterns to its options pinning and how it behaves 1-2 days prior thereto. etc. Same trading pattern over and over with a few exceptions that you have to be on guard for if the overall market is "X" or "Y" at said time. But like you say it's more like a dice table/ SHELL GAME than ever in Hx.
fucking caught me off-guard. I was long some 580c and hesitated to leg into a bear spread or even a bull ratio/back-spread believing AAPL would re-test 600 or near same. Then - I was long 560p which were in the red so when it sold off - at some point rather than sitting on my hands - I sold 565p and managed to leave myself with a 1.50 max loss per spread rather than create a +expectancy spread or at lest neutral[unless it closes >565 Friday]. Like pavlov's dog I felt AAPL would fill gap. Go f-ing figure that - when overall market has held up all week. Psycho GF .
Apple Smacked into Bear Market by Margin Rules In early trading, COR Clearing sent Apple's shares swooning when it announced that it was changing its margin requirements on Apple to 60 percent from 30 percent. The move effectively raises the amount of capital that investors are required to have when they take positions in the stock. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100280184