I am still short Live Cattle and Feeders, it's been Nov 2014, recent highs added on. Am still long Hogs but have hedged open profits as it is due for move down, hoping it goes down enough so I can add to long position. Yea, have long to go for Beef to get low enough to be able to buy as per my Trading Plan and now it is yo-yo time like fishing a huge marlin, reel in then give it some line to tire out, then reel it in....
I want to buy a good sized farm in five years, grow alfalfa and raise Range Fed and Organic Angus Cattle, prices by then should have bottom and start going back up. As you can see Live Cattle made a H&S pattern on highs, I can't consider getting out till 102 and below as per my Trading Plan and 75% of the range of last nine years. I have tried adding on several times since first going short, some still in and some got first target of $4800 and others were breakevens including gains/losses on options. Live Cattle is very much like Crude Oil adhering to charting of support/resistance and patterns.
Long ZC K/N @ -3. Resistance to corn death spiral + Seasonality + previous expiries have seen their carry shrinking in the last month.
Out @-28.2. The entry was really good. My first target @ -29 was missed by 1 tick in february so this time I pushed it a little higher. On this spread, full carry acts like a magnet on which price rebounds.
Short Jan/Mar Soybeans @ 0.5. The rally is flattening the curve in 2017 while Dec/Jan still présents a solid carry.