My way of thinking on this is more technical. Basically, it has to revert at some point. I don't know if it will happen during the life of the Oct contract, or next year.... Or perhaps that fundamental??
@GiantHogweed I think, its already reverted on longer expiry which are on lower level @All Do you have any sucess with TA ? I still dont understand why it should work and its kind of difficult to backtest TA so I never tried it.
Long Mar / Short May 15 Cotton @ -0.77 Just feeling that the current buying pressure on December will drag further spreads. Check the curve.
By the way, I had several other signals in the last few weeks but mostly in illiquid markets so I didn't post.
With the rebound off the bottom of the range and the possible top in on FCX, I will be looking to add to my position and move up stops. It will depend on tomorrow's action....