Always Trending & Choppy

Discussion in 'Trading' started by K-Rock, Apr 30, 2006.

  1. K-Rock


    Recently I came across the following statements on different threads:

    -The markets are always trending; and,
    -The markets are always choppy.

    If both statements are true and both exist concurrently than the difference is relative to the period (time, tick, volume, etc.) being examined. So if you’re a trend trader and the market becomes choppy, change to a trending period. Likewise if you’re a contrarian trader and the market starts to trend, change to a range bound period.

    Is it really that simple?
  2. Is it that simple? Typing it, it sounds simple. Just as many other things in life, you can say it..........

    Executing it is a different story though.
  3. K-Rock


    So the challenge really is knowing each moment which period(s) is/are relevant to your setup.
  4. Yeah. It's probably always better to be trading a system for a trending period, and to have another system set-up for a choppy period on the timeframes you trade.

    I scalp, so none of this is relevant for me, but for swing trading, it could be very helpful to have a system for trending, and a system for choping.

    For example, if you look on a daily timeframe, and you plot support and resistance levels, I notice that when prices move towards support and resistance, it is usually a choppy day and the opens and closes are usually very close for at least 1 day near a support and resistance zone.

    Stuff like that can help you when swing trading or even day-trading.

    Should have a plan though for both type of days I'd imagine though, i'm sure your returns would be better.
  5. Try choppily trending or trendily choppy.
  6. Cheese


    Trend obsession is very commonplace because most believe it is the obvious observation about the price behavior of a market. The obvious instead is the gyrations (eg YM) which provide ALL the points on offer each day.

    Now if you want to add to that basis, the 'temporary direction' of the market, well for example you can put up a short and a long MA (short here meaning a smaller number MA); short under the long is direction down while short over the long is direction up. This won't change anything because the money is in the gyrations.
  7. You're onto something. For me to write a post explaining why would do Marc Fisher and his book, The Logical Trader a disservice.

    Read it if you want to get an answer to your question.
  8. Damn Cheese, you just nailed it!

    ... and they say you can't learn anything here.


  9. I've heard people say that the Markets trend only 15-20% of the Time and move sideways the rest of the time. Those individuals can not define the trend.

    Here is the E-Mini S&P from last April to current. You tell me if you could trade this having this information in real-time. Oh those labels, both on the price bars and the indicator are created in real-time. Trends only exist on the particular chart you are looking at as well. One chart at a time.

    No spiritual crap here. The foundation of the information that went into creating those has been around for over 100 years and it has absolutely nothing to do with Fibonacci, Elliott or Gann. You just have to open up your brain instead of a book.
  10. according to the time frame wouldn't ANY movement be trend? the sound of music?
    #10     May 28, 2006