Am I ready to go live?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by DougStewart, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    It doesn't seem to have this number, so we have to just do it visually by looking at the various plotted curves and trying to see where the worst drop from a high peak is and how roughly big this is. None of them of course look all that bad, but of course, there is just as much chance that you end up on the green line vs. the red line, and the red line would be lots of work for barely any profit, and the low equity point there is -$1600. The midpoint simulation though, the white line is what I would think is the most reasonable result to assume, but understanding that it can be anywhere.

    I do still think that SIM trading 3 contracts isn't adding any value. You clearly need to go through at least 50 trades before you have any idea how good you're doing. I mean if you're unlucky to start on that red line, you're just treading water for the first 100 trades, and I personally do think that 3 contracts is far too much to be trading without any live trading experience because that is a lot of money to be losing if just a few trades don't work out. 3 contracts honestly don't teach you anything that 1 wouldn't. A losing trade has to be so little money that you just don't care about it. For some people this might be $10 or $20, but I don't think most people would think throwing away $100 to be trivial, and this is just 2 points on 1 contract. The emotional toll of several losses in a row on 3 contracts can be quite great. But of course, I could just be talking about myself and you might be completely different. All I want to get across is that since you're not using a system that relies of scaling in and out, trading more contracts in SIM will teach you nothing. Unless you plan to trade 3 your very first day going live and stick with this for an entire month, there is no reason to make the equity curve from SIM look better with 3.
     
    #151     Jul 17, 2017
  2. algofy

    algofy

    #152     Aug 2, 2017
  3. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    just say no - one of two things will happen.

    1.) it will go better than you even thought and after a great first week you will be googling the nearest ferrari dealership. after which you will be selling your volkswagen the following week.

    2.) actual trading will in no way reflect your paper trading and you will ask yourself what planet did i just get dropped off on. you be crushed and shrivel up understanding what the term second childhood means.
     
    #153     Aug 3, 2017