Well IAL, there you have it, you even took the trouble to post the link, the stocks, condensed the method in a thread, everything except trade the system for him. Naysayers will be naysayers, the envious cannot have their envy relieved by an outside source, they will only find something else to carp about. Regards Oddi
I think anyone who reads Market Wizard will notice very clearly how the Wizards tear down each others method. Go to Ed Seykota's board and see how he consistently attacks high frequency trading. Read trend followers interviews and they say high frequency trading does not work. Read cycle followers interview and they say others are just wasting their time. read or attend any talk by Paul Tudor Jones and see how he just promotes his method and dismisses anything else. I think trading success is a combination of trader+ his method+ his mental and emotional strength. That is why it is so difficult to replicate others method.
I really don't think of investing as a personal thing nor a personality thing. I review your total effort and it reads clearly like it can only last so long. You continually added money to it to keep it rolling. Then you periodically restart it. Your methods really keep you very happy at a level of success that you deem to be super or something. I have never had a ROI such as yours. As a short term investor we are in different worlds. I trade also. Again it is a different world. I requested that you use GAAP of something like that so your success can be placed in the spectrum of successes many many different methods enjoy. Phoenix says I take potshots. My suggestions to Mr market made to get the missing information added. No one here thinks for a minute that mr Market is suggesting compounding 53 trades @12.65%. He knows full well as does everyone else that he is running the trades in parallel and not in series. as a Wharton student, were he one of mine, I would clearly understand that he knows how investing works. My focus with him were he in a class, would be to encourage him to do an excellent job of expressing stuff. He does a cut and paste now on FA late in value runs. The couple of years he has spent getting his method off the ground still requires restarts when it fills up with long term holds of the stock subset he uses. He expanded his portfolio by a factor of 4 or 5 to get to 15 streams to prolong the time between restarts so far. Lately he is beginning to recognize standard practices that many many people suggest to him here. He does not like older, academics probably as a result of his Wharton experience. That is not my concern. The orientation he has to me is normal I think. The orientation of phoenix to me is expected and consistent with his view of the markets and his trading methods. When Mr market becomes a comprehensive recorder and reporter of his methods it will benefit him more than anyone else. when he first posted, there were six improvements that he could make to move to more efficient money making processes; he is using restarts so far as a way of not using any of these alternative conventions. Thats fine with the world I am sure. I look at the pairing of a market and an investor. Then I look at the respective efficiencies and finally how each combines with the other. Mr market is not efficient as we all see. He picks a difficult market modus to extract capital form as we see also. It looks like the driving force in his efforts is just like that of phoenix. They have strong drives. I am an old softy. I let the market dictate to me and I obey it's suggestions. I am not a tough guy and I really am not taking potshots. Mr Market's streams of capital get cycled as others reported here. Now he is running 15 streams in parallel. He has a job he prefers to investing full time. I think he is making a strong effort at this point. Because he targets two things: 4 to 6 week holds and 15% profits, he requires of himself that he select a new pick everyother day in order to keep his streams running. That, for me, is the only place he has bragging rights if and when he starts doing what his plans call for. It think he has set a goal that is not possible. The reason is that he cannot make any bad picks. It has a zero tolerance for mistakes at this point or he will have to continue his restart approach which has prevailed over his plans so far for three years. This looks like a dilemma to me. phoenix is a sideliner vis a vis substantive comments. Most of the harsh persons here are "wait and see" types who carp mostly. ET is not a place of civility. It seems that this lack of civility is very common among members. Who cares really. This apparent dilemma is a learning place for me mostly. I comment for many reasons. I advocate for are sharing of responsibility between the market and the investor/trader. Anyone who steps over the line and usurps the market's responsibility, derives the consequences. Targeting in time and price and predicting are the three most offensive aspects of this abrogation. It makes the dilemma a serious difficulty to deal with.
Understand that my analysis of Mr. Market's returns (12% per trade average - holding period 4 months average) is based on my assumption of his reinvesting the capital as per the trade sequence I spelled out and how so. I presented what I think was the best scenario possible. Only Mr. Market can clarify and detail the actual chronological parlaying of his capital. But also noteworthy was my understanding that he needed to dig deep into his pockets, savings, or borrow the funds needed to invest in new opportunities, because his capital was otherwise tied up in mostly losing positions. That is significant. He's happy and comfortable with that, but certainly there's much room for improving that aspect of his methodology. According to his records, winners + losers combined give him a total return of about 73% in just under 2 years, which is about 32% per year compounded thus far. Now, 32% annually for a stock portfolio is nice performance, though I wouldn't go around thumping my chest and brandishing my MBA about. It's just not all that. Sure hedge funds could come a-knocking or not, but they're not seeking spectacular performance, they're seeking preservation of capital and pleasant growth. They may run away once they understand there are no stops being used. Think LTCM. Now in stark comparison to 32% returns, Harris Kupperman, for example, could be afforded bragging rights if he wanted them. If my method were Mr. Market's, I'd seek out how to improve upon the performance. It holds losers too long and that has a cost. The method forces seeking new capital consistently to continue financing new opportunities, and that has costs. Thirdly, it limits profits by selling at 15%, and that has a cost. So, while it's OK and well on the outside, it's got a few flaws in its makeup that need to be addressed.
What an extraordinary comment, given that you were banned for, among other things, a lack of civility. Your position has always been that unless one does it your way, he's doing it wrong. Seems as though that hasn't changed much. Jack could learn something about tolerance by checking out the interaction between thunderdog and mojo in the Fib thread.
I was banned for giving to others what they persisted in doing to the threads. in which i participated. after 6 months of letting things ride, I gave back what i was getting. They started whining to m and then complained to those upon whom they depend for protection. The whiners fixed my ass so to speak by whining and complaining about my behavior. My training precludes whining to authority for help. My position on trading and investing is this: Anyone can invest any way they choose. Secondly, it is a great idea to keep one's eyes open. I rarely start a thread on anything. I participate in two types of threads as started by others. One kind is the informative kind where a key issue is on the table. What you think is "my way or the highway" is something else actually. You will find out as time passes. I am not stuck with one way of doing things. Over the last 50 years or so I have seen the appearance of a lot of stuff. most people refine their efforts, some are stck and many cannot grasp much of anything for their personal reasons. I believe most people do their thing and check out their progress by keeping abreast of what is possible. Occasionally I run into a situation or persons who are kidding others one way or another. First I ask what about it. Then I ask direct Q's. Finally, I suggest collateral examples that are related to the matter the person is kidding about. There is a caveat however. There has to be some substantive aspect to what they kid others about. What you suggest about me demonstrates that you do not get it. No matter. Who cares. This thread is about a method that terminates itself over a particular time span. Others have shown this in several ways. Mr Market has a very tough row to hoe it turns out. He is a survivor by exercising a bunch of decoys and ruses. I think they are terrific for exposing the limitations of others. Probably the best in ET presently. He has done a series of fairly average avoidance mechanisms with me: 1. I do not have time for you; my family is more important. 2. Character assassinations of many forms. 3. Academic whatevers. but unfortunately I was on the faculty at Uof P and wharton . lol. 4. Avoidance pure and simple. Who cares. Mr Market has a multitude of good and better advice than mine. His three year example of a self terminating approach is a classic model for all to learn from. It is a terrific model that could be fixed. Were he to fix it it could become another great example. For ET it is a win win no matter what he does. In ET you are the best foil that I have found so far. You are a person who invariably sets me up to deal with issue after issue that needs to be addressed in ET. At this point a lot of others step in and inform you as well. You have become a great service to readers here. I look forward to your figuring out why MR Market's approach is terminal in it's present form. Give it a try. It is a very good homework assignment. Find out why he does restarts. Make a chart of how many money streams he has active at any time. Find out when the system needs more money streams to keep running. (he has gone from 2 to 15 in less than three years and his restarts begin with 15 empty streams). Some of his holds go through over 5 cycles before he either restarts or they limp off the list. Use any cycle definition you want, even his.
Yeah, whatever, db. Putting your foot knee high in it as usual. Richtrader's point was crystal clear in his origingal post. Of course, it's easy to understand how someone taking your (almost patented) high and mighty focus on the trees (branches even) and miss the next six forests approach to reading a post failed to understand it. Read your last half dozen posts, have you db? Read them, read the Feedback:ET better in last 6 months and start repeating: "the mote in my own eye, the mote in my own eye, the mote in my own eye..."