Another Trade of a lifetime - long treasury bonds (and T Notes)

Discussion in 'Fixed Income' started by Nighthawk, May 25, 2023.

  1. Noted and agreed on the money printing.

    Yet, I see the unfortunate timing of the Russian/Ukrainian troubles as main culprit for current inflationary environment. Using Copper and gold as traditional indicators, a recession is coming. Credit card delinquencies are at highs not seen since GFC in 2008. China doing really shitty. South America in a debt trap. Many other developing countries overburdened with debt and tumbling local currencies.

    Where is the REAL demand driven inflation coming from? The FED´s and other CB´s narrative are HIGHLY questionable and late in response. Overreach is the danger.

    In aggregate: the inflationary pressures are already subsiding quite dramatically.

    I have only one concern currently: secondary effects of wage rises.

    If the FED raises rates once again at next meeting = definitely add another shovel of longs.
     
    #11     Jun 2, 2023