This is easily one of the best posts I read on ET in a long time and should be stickied or archived in the Hall of Fame for newbies (including a warning about not even attempting to learn (day) trading on their own unless they're prepared to spend at least 10 years with slim chances of success). I like how you frame these vendors as "helpers". Just as bad are those that want to "help" for free on ET without being profitable themselves (of which there are many).
He is the last person you want to learn from. The sad reality, as other have alluded to, is that generating pnl is extremely hard to do in real life. The “hard work” is not in chart reading or knowing what the definition of a break out is (lol), it is in the data collection, preparation, analyzing, and synthesis of research to stitch together a robust understanding of how markets function and to explore market anomalies or other phenomena that can be harvested for pnl. I’ve yet to meet a market maker, (legit) prop trader, or hedge fund pm who is trading off charts and who thinks that’s the “hard work”. The vast majority of retail don’t know how to do that themselves and don’t know how to learn about such analysis from other people. Al Brooks and other retail snake oil salespeople do not have white papers explaining their methodology with empirical evidence. Sadly even if they did, many retailers wouldn’t know how to read them because they spend their time staring at charts instead of developing useful skills like reading comprehension, data analysis, and critical thinking…
LOL My issue with advice like staring at a screen, is how do you know what you are seeing is actually there? Humans are pattern recognition machines due to our evolutionary biology. We see things that aent always there as a survival mechanism. Look up at the clouds long enough and you will swear you saw the face of God, but in reality, it was probably just a random cloud. So to me, I need something more quantifiable.
Technical analysis is a method used in financial markets to evaluate and predict the future price movements of assets, such as stocks, currencies, and commodities, based on historical price and volume data. It involves analyzing patterns, trends, and other statistical indicators derived from past market data to make predictions about future price movements. The effectiveness of technical analysis is a topic of debate among financial professionals and researchers. Here are some key points to consider: 1. **Supporters of Technical Analysis:** - Proponents argue that technical analysis can provide valuable insights into short-term price movements and trends. - They believe that historical price and volume patterns can repeat due to human behavior and market psychology. - Technical indicators, such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and MACD, are widely used by traders and analysts to make trading decisions. 2. **Critics of Technical Analysis:** - Critics argue that technical analysis is based on past price data and does not consider fundamental factors, news, or external events that can drive price movements. - The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that all available information is already reflected in the current market price, making it difficult to consistently predict future movements using past data alone. - Some critics view technical analysis as more of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where patterns work because many traders believe in them and act accordingly. 3. **Mixed Evidence:** - Some traders and investors have found success using technical analysis as part of their trading strategy, particularly in short-term trading scenarios. - However, others have not found consistent success with technical analysis alone and combine it with other methods like fundamental analysis or algorithmic trading. In conclusion, the effectiveness of technical analysis can vary based on the individual trader's skill, the asset being analyzed, and market conditions. While some traders find value in using technical analysis as part of their toolkit, others prefer to focus on fundamental analysis or a combination of both approaches. It's important to recognize that no method, including technical analysis, can guarantee accurate predictions of market movements, and risks are inherent in trading and investing.
My issue is that anybody who teaches trading does not have an auditable track record to show what they do works. Nobody asks the important questions. After backtesting manually (because some patterns are too subjective to define to a computer), as well as through TradeStation, it generally comes up a mixed bag regarding the patterns. Not just Al, but all trading books I've read. The results don't hold up from my own research and backtesting.
learning to trade is about taking bits and pieces of learnings from other people (preferably people more experienced, and successful than you) and then combining them to building a unique strategy of your own.
Backtesting patterns in isolation is what algo traders do, that’s why they have huge drawdowns and hardly ever make any money. I trade PA, but I’ll NEVER EVER trade a pattern by itself because there are other important variables (eg. market dynamics/conditions) which can invalidate a pattern. A pattern by itself is just a meaningless set of lines (or whatever). It tremendously helps to understand market structure, buying and selling pressure, and at what zones one can expect buyers/sellers to regain control, etc. The above-mentioned variables are what makes the patterns to come alive, and only then one can make better informed decision whether or not to take/skip each pattern on individual basis. You need to be realistic. It takes years to fine tune. As @newwurldmn suggested, you need to build your own unique strategy from bits and pieces.
Chatgpt generated? Back to OP, maybe someone was forced to leave those firms because they brought up TA
Totally agree. And this resonates with me because that's sort of the boat I'm in right now. I finally have some basic skills to to some simple backtesting, and testing my ideas, and testing the ideas of what I thought to be factual and it just doesn't hold up. Everybody wants to sell me a membership, trading course, or book, but when I ask the question "can I see your track record to see how you've done teaching what you sell?" the BS response is sorry, we cant for legal reasons. Fine... based on my backtest your method doesn't have positive EV anyways. Thanks!