Are equities an inflation hedge?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Maverick2608, Sep 19, 2022.

  1. piezoe

    piezoe

    There are two factors at play: inflation and dollar strength. Normally these track each other inversely, but not always, as for example right now. We have recalcitrant inflation, but not increasing significantly, and a strengthening dollar. A weak dollar pushes equities up. A strong dollar pushes them down. Generally price inflation is associated with a weakening dollar. Currently we have price inflation but a strengthening dollar because of fed action -- rates going up . There was a period during early recovery from the financial crisis right after the fed announced QE that inflation was being widely anticipated by those who had no clue. Some ETers were even predicting hyperinflation! The inflation never came because demand for credit had dried up. Banks developed huge reserve surpluses, retail rates were rock bottom, yet there was little demand for credit. That's when bernanke began paying interest on bank reserves to put a floor under interest to keep it from going all the way to zero. During that period the equities market tracked the U.S. dollar futures hand in glove. Dollar down, market up. Dollar up, market down.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2022
    #11     Sep 19, 2022