The official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. We are just a couple months away from the U.S. achieving a second quarter of economic contraction -- at that point we will be in a recession.
the odd is increasing, last q we had massive imports, and reading the news, seems that retailers are restocking the shelf, probly another q of prepaid massive imports, that would fit the technical definition.
You can feel a recessionary cycle approaching when you trade. If your long trades begin to look like Bull Traps and each move up is countered with slam downs which are based on actual economic and related news and behavior. You can begin to see the economic variables connecting with market behavior. And the psychology begins to change. People begin to see thru questionable hype and bubble activity..they start to realize these companies smell oddly like sht. Smart money begins to pull away and the short bus becomes the main factor in the market. Bags begin to get filled. The pure retard stocks like GME and pennies begin to show crazy behavior. Suddenly, the short bus finds themselves holding bigger and bigger bags
You don't need any warning signs everything Trump is doing likely leads to a Recession. Standard economic theory. The question is how fast does the US back track on insane economic policy and when will that register with lagging economic data. Inflation is coming, higher unemployment is coming. The Trump miracle cures take years to build if they are even practical. Meanwhile, so many Americans are sleep walking into this on the blind faith that an aging repeat failed businessman can direct the economy using his decrees. None of this ends well for Americans other than possibly corrupt politicians and high income tax payers. Best you can hope for is to minimize the damage.
I won't take the bait wrt to Trump since I think there are a confluence of things a recession could be attributed to. That said, it's always wise to gird your loins!
The US went from a thriving economy to a negative one in 6 months. It's not rocket science what caused this. I get it, some would rather believe blindly in their messiah than figure this out but seriously markets don't care and neither does hard economic data.
Lol, well we know where you stand. I was going to go into the details of how Nixon moved us off the gold standard but w/e. This is the "economics" section right?