Australia’s property boom making the nation poorer

Discussion in 'Economics' started by themickey, May 20, 2021.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    Just a couple more days before election and this is the week for scaremongering.

    Media headlines....

    "Voting Green may be the greatest act of self-harm by a generation ever"
    Under the Greens’ housing proposal, rent could rise by an average $83 a week, on top of the rent increases likely to happen anyway.

    "ATO’s blitz on family trusts threatens ‘financial ruin’"
    Wealthy families are being hit with bills for unpaid taxes and penalties worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

    "Labor’s missing $8b for housing makes a mockery of budget"
    More than 80 per cent of the $10 billion that the government committed to build 100,000 homes for first buyers was nowhere to be seen in its election costings

    "Labor’s tax on unrealised gains could wreck your retirement"
    This new tax warrants rigorous scrutiny and a more comprehensive reassessment before it inflicts lasting damage on our nation’s financial well-being.

    "Neo-Nazis imitate Libs in antisemitic leaflet drops; Dutton hopes to win back heartland seat"
    Follow live as we bring you all the news from the final week of the election campaign

    "Anthony-Albanese-doesnt-have-the-faintest-clue of credit rating peril."
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2025
    #921     Apr 30, 2025
  2. Cabin1111

    Cabin1111

    I know we've come a long way...

    We're changing day to day...

     
    #922     Apr 30, 2025
  3. themickey

    themickey

    Opinion

    Why neither Albanese nor Dutton deserve your vote

    The two contenders give the impression the country is hanging on for dear life, and their job is simply to get Australia through whatever the latest crisis is.

    John RoskamColumnist May 1, 2025
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...-nor-dutton-deserve-your-vote-20250501-p5lvrh

    Regardless of the side of politics that they’re on, politicians always claim two things. They say, “Australia is the greatest country in the world” and “Our nation’s best days are ahead”.
    The 2025 federal election campaign has revealed that maybe neither of those statements is true.

    [​IMG]
    The 2025 election campaign has been the culmination of a decade of mediocre politics. Alex Ellinghausen

    Missing from the campaign is any substantive discussion of policy.
    This has perfectly suited the Labor Party. In a battle of whose handout is bigger, the ALP will always win. The only thing the Coalition’s “small target” strategy has achieved is to shrink its polling numbers and Peter Dutton’s standing as the alternative prime minister.
    No side of politics has offered any sense of optimism.

    Maybe that’s because neither Anthony Albanese nor Dutton believes there’s much to be optimistic about. Or maybe it’s because they are not Bob Hawke or Ronald Reagan – very few leaders are.

    For whatever reason, Albanese and Dutton give the impression they and the country are hanging on for dear life, and their job is simply to get Australia through whatever the latest crisis is.

    They both speak a lot more about what they’re fearful of than what they’re hopeful for. There’s a sense that the task of government in Australia is now too big for any leader or political party. But at the same time, politicians eagerly give the impression there’s no problem – economic, social or cultural – they can’t solve.

    The reality is that the 2025 election campaign has been the culmination of a decade of mediocre politics.

    If on Saturday the Coalition somehow claims its second “miracle” victory in three elections, Dutton will be this country’s eighth prime minister in eighteen years. The question is whether what’s happened to the Australian political system is a temporary aberration or a permanent structural change.
    It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that it’s the latter.

    Federal politics, not always, but usually, rewards length of service rather than ability. Albanese has been in parliament for more than 29 years, and Dutton for nearly 25 years. No MP, Labor or Liberal, gets points from their leader for having an original idea or for telling the truth.

    It’s not a coincidence that one of the most consequential politicians of the last decade is Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. She’s not Labor or Liberal – she’s a National. When she fearlessly led the “No” campaign in the Voice referendum, she had been in parliament for less than 12 months. Albanese has been in parliament for so long that he enjoys the advantages of the old parliamentary defined benefits superannuation scheme abolished by John Howard.

    One of the many mysteries about the Coalition’s campaign strategy is why it waited until a few days before election day, after millions of people had already voted, to start talking about the dangers and consequences of Labor’s tax on unrealised gains.

    It is not as if the Coalition didn’t know about the tax. It has been Labor policy since 2023. In 2024, two Liberal senators, Andrew Bragg and Dean Smith, wrote this after a parliamentary inquiry into the tax: “Shockingly, this bill, as it stands, will not apply to Mr Albanese himself. This bill only applies to those on accumulation schemes, and as Mr Albanese is on the old parliamentary defined benefits scheme, the supposed method for calculating the prime minister’s tax liability will be left to delegated legislation.”

    “Therefore, the prime minister is asking the parliament to vote on a tax bill that will not, in and of itself, apply to him. Our two-party parliamentary system may no longer be fit for purpose.”
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2025
    #923     May 1, 2025
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Opinion
    Labor’s missing $8b for housing makes a mockery of budget

    More than 80 per cent of the $10 billion that the government committed to build 100,000 homes for first buyers was nowhere to be seen in its election costings.

    John Kehoe Economics editor Apr 30, 2025
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/...ing-makes-a-mockery-of-budget-20250429-p5lv3v

    When Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher unveiled their election costings this week, there was a glaring omission in Labor’s official document.
    More than 80 per cent of the $10 billion that Labor had publicly committed to during the campaign to build 100,000 homes for first buyers was nowhere to be seen.

    [​IMG]
    Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher say the government’s election promises will improve the budget by $1 billion over four years. Catherine Strohfeldt

    Some $8 billion of zero-interest loans or equity investments, primarily to help the states build more homes, was not fully accounted for.
    Chalmers had the audacity to claim the budget would be in a stronger position than before the election campaign began, due to $6.4 billion of cuts to government consultants, contractors and labour hire, and non-wage expenses such as travel, hospitality and property.

    The charade exposes the Albanese government’s increasing use of so-called “off-budget” spending.
    The trick works like this. Announce a big spending number to impress voters, then later don’t count it towards the budget’s underlying cash balance that most media and analysts focus on. And don’t mention that the multi-billion dollar number will be borrowed and added to the nation’s near $1 trillion gross debt pile......
     
    #924     May 1, 2025
  5. Cabin1111

    Cabin1111

    Serious and funny at the same time...

    Promise them anything!!


     
    #925     May 1, 2025
    themickey likes this.
  6. Wouldn't surprise me if alot of Teals will get up this election. Another record broken on prepoll as nearly a third of people have voted already.
     
    #926     May 1, 2025
  7. themickey

    themickey

    Chalmers fails to recognise $47b deficit in his budget
    John Kehoe Economics editor Apr 30, 2025
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/...ise-47b-deficit-in-his-budget-20250430-p5lvi2

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers failed to recognise a $47 billion deficit figure in his budget, in an oversight that leading economist Saul Eslake says exposes how the major parties gloss over so-called off-budget spending that a credit rating agency has also sounded the alarm on.

    In an ABC Brisbane radio interview on Wednesday, the host played Chalmers an audio clip of economist Steven Hamilton criticising the government’s big spending and for presiding over a $47 billion deficit.

    [​IMG]
    Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Alex Ellinghausen

    Hamilton was referring to Labor’s $46.7 billion headline cash deficit for 2024-25 reported in the budget document on March 25. This includes off-budget spending by Labor on items such as the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, NBN and Housing Australia.
    Chalmers appeared not to recognise the headline deficit figure and denied its existence, instead preferring to focus on the more commonly reported smaller underlying cash deficit of $27.6 billion that is cited by treasurers.

    Host Steve Austin told Chalmers that Hamilton got the number from the budget papers.
    In the lead-up to the May 3 election, economists have warned the major parties need to rein in spending amid a reckless campaign in which both sides have promised billions in cost-of-living handouts and electorate-level promises aimed at grabbing votes in key battlegrounds.
    Eslake heard Chalmers’ ABC exchange while waiting on the phone to be interviewed next on the breakfast radio program.

    “Chalmers didn’t recognise the number in his budget paper, although you can’t expect him to know everything, of course,” Eslake said.
    “It just highlights the problem that the headline balance, despite the name, is invisible to almost everyone.”

    Eslake also criticised the Coalition for planning to account for hundreds of billions of dollars of spending on nuclear power plants by using the same “off budget” trick, by claiming the energy investment would deliver a commercial return to taxpayers.
    “The Coalition is pretending they do not need to pay for that,” he said. “That is even more irresponsible than Labor.”

    Past Coalition governments have done similar off-budget spending on other projects, including the Snowy Hydro 2.0 renewable energy generation venture which has blown out six-fold in cost to $12 billion.

    The Albanese government on Monday was accused by ratings agency S&P Global of hiding the full extent of the fiscal deterioration through $104 billion of off-budget spending for items such as the NBN, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, National Reconstruction Fund, Housing Australia and Labor’s pledge to waive $16 billion of student loans.
    “We believe an overt focus on the central government’s preferred fiscal metric, the ‘underlying cash balance’, coupled with a proliferation of ‘off budget’ spending programs, that are excluded from this metric, is increasingly obfuscating Australia’s fiscal position and borrowing needs,” the S&P analysts said.

    Off-budget investments add to the government’s gross debt, which is approaching $1 trillion. The International Monetary Fund has said the proliferation of off-budget funds to invest in the energy grid, industry, and housing should be avoided.

    The underlying cash deficit is forecast to total $179 billion over five years, but the cumulative headline deficit is projected to be much larger at $283 billion.
    Former Liberal treasurer Peter Costello in 1996 shifted to focus on the “underlying” cash balance to remove the one-off windfalls from the privatisation of Telstra and other government assets. It prevented the budget surplus from being artificially inflated and gave a more accurate picture of the budget.

    Since the Rudd government introduced the NBN in 2009, Labor and Coalition have exploited this system to gloss over the full extent of their spending and budget deficits.

    Eslake said there was a heap of spending by Labor and the Coalition not being properly recognised.
    “It underscores that we need to give up this concept of the underlying budget balance and go back to focusing on the headline balance,” Eslake said.
    “Investments in financial assets ought to be included in what Chris Richardson calls the budget’s ‘table of truth’.”
     
    #927     May 1, 2025
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Australia's banks face critical earnings test amid economic, political crosscurrents
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australias-banks-face-critical-earnings-000720939.html

    (Reuters) - Australia's biggest banks face a pivotal earnings test next week as they navigate mixed interest margin prospects in the face of looming rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns and rising mortgage stress.

    The results arrive after a politically-charged election set for May 3 dominated by cost-of-living anxieties that are reshaping banks' mortgage books and consumer lending patterns.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its first interest rate cut since November 2020 in February, signalling a potential turning point for bank margins after higher rates supercharged competition.

    Bank shares, which initially underperformed after the rate cut due to frothy valuations and disappointing earnings, rebounded following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2 as investors sought safe havens with minimal exposure to global trade disruption.

    The financial sub-index has risen nearly 4% since then, though Citi analysts note this "safe haven trade was not broad, seeing investors concentrate into Commonwealth Bank of Australia over the past month with more middling share price returns elsewhere." CBA shares are hovering near a record high hit on April 23.

    Investors expect another quarter-point rate cut from the RBA on May 20, though some have scaled back forecasts of five rate cuts this year following a stronger-than-expected reading in headline inflation. [0#AUDIRPR]

    If the domestic economy holds up, rate cuts may lead to stronger housing credit growth as increased borrowing power flows through to higher house prices and larger loan sizes, Macquarie analysts say.

    MARGINS UNDER PRESSURE

    Westpac, Australia's second-largest mortgage lender, opens the bank reporting season on Monday with an expected 2.6% rise in first-half net profit, according to market data aggregator Visible Alpha.

    National Australia Bank, the top business lender, is expected to report a near 2% drop in half-year cash earnings, while ANZ Group is forecast to report largely flat earnings, according to Visible Alpha.

    "If an economic slowdown proves worse than anticipated and bad debt provisions rise, NAB and ANZ could be particularly vulnerable given their higher exposure to business lending," UBS analysts warned.

    ANZ faces additional risk due to its very low starting levels of bad debt provisions, potentially leaving it more exposed to deteriorating economic conditions, they added.

    CBA, the country's biggest lender, gives a third-quarter trading update on May 14, with Citi analysts expecting a slight margin decline of 2 basis points but a profit increase of up to 7%.

    For the first half of 2025, Westpac's net interest margin is forecast at 1.91%, slightly above last year's 1.89%, while NAB is expected to see margins contract to 1.69% from 1.72%. ANZ's margin is projected to edge up to 1.58% from 1.56%.
     
    #928     May 1, 2025
  9. themickey

    themickey

    The last day today prior to Australia going to the polls and in typical fashion the major parties are attempting at throwing as much shit as possible into the direction of the minor parties with smear stories like "they're stupid, they support unions, they're devious, they want to jack up taxation, they want to increase rent prices......" etc etc of which they themselves are guilty.

    The major parties have nothing to offer imo, so they go bashing everyone else and go on a verbal rampage with scare tactics.

    Just look at reality and judge those politicians on their zero track record.
    LMAO :)
     
    #929     May 2, 2025
  10. This Election was a real dilemma, I had trouble deciding who to put last in the Senate; Pauline Hansons party or Clive Palmer's.
     
    #930     May 2, 2025