I am a daytrader in futures. I never read anything about trading, except Market Wizards, but that has no value for me. I followed my own logic and intuition and developped a mathematical model for trading. So if never read, heard or used NUPL, ASOL or aSOPR. I posted a few weeks ago ( 16/11) that I had a short signal on weekly charts. From that signal BTC went down till today. Lost 28% till today and 37% to the deepest low we reached. I told to Baron that it was too early to buy. I use my mathematical model for this. I am not interested in any other "indicator" or other information. So I cannot help you with my pov.
I read above posts and assume the average age of opponents is higher then proponents of bitcoin and it is not to offend anyone. It is a generational bias that is speaking imo. Older generation are conservative and stick to their investing habits while younger generation explore and take risks and rewards of investment in the unknown. There is also: "I missed the train, so it better crash" common narrative which simply is regret. I would argue that regret fuels the last stages of bubbles in general as those who decide at last to enter rather then remain bears, become often bagholders.
Instead of looking at similarities between crypto and gold maybe we should look at the differences; Gold is real. I can see it, hold it, drop it on my foot. It's a thing. Crypto is a digital asset. It's in a computer somewhere but I can't tell you where exactly. I can use gold for other things. It's shiny and can be used as decoration, it has some weight and could be used to hold things down or as a door stop. I can put a value on it because I know the amount of time required to pan an ounce. I also believe it is widely used in electronics and the aerospace industry. I'm not sure there is another use for crypto.
The old people would do well to listen, but the young people should also heed the lessons of excess. Go learn about the dot com bubble. The lives that were disrupted. That needs to happen in crypto, it's just a NATURAL thing, not a wish, not FOMO. That level of excess isn't there yet in crypto. My feeling is that we will get some sort of government incursion into the space, as in government backed stablecoins. On this, many things will be built. The sad part of this is that everyone who helped build crypto till then will probably be left out. This is only what I expect to happen based on the PAST. Not on what I hope or wish. I believe in crypto, but I also believe that modern crypto is very primitive and not yet useful in civilized society.
You seen the film Wolf of Wallstreet? Mark Hanna : You know what a fugazi is? Jordan Belfort : Fugayzi, it's a fake. Mark Hanna : Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real. Gold is actually on the elemental chart!, its fucking real while Bitcoin: It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.
The tech behind crypto is absolutely useful. With a government backed stablecoin which is AS GOOD AS CASH, many things are possible. However, the issue is of course that governments will worry about money laundering being made very efficient. I don't know how the problem will be solved.