Bitcoin "Freefall"

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by SunTrader, Dec 15, 2021.

  1. Overnight


    I thought the fugazi talk came from Donnie Brasco. *shrugs* Guess I gotta' watch WoWS again.

    #31     Dec 16, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  2. johnarb


    I disagree with your view on the current state of the cryptos ecosystem and that it needs resetting

    The way I see it, everything is working very well with cryptos financial system and there is no need for a "reset" that you mentioned

    Cryptos ecosystem is worth over $2 Trillion currently and growing at an enormous pace

    Bitcoin is the reserve asset which is the gateway to the "civilized society" you speak of, but what I would term as cashing out in the real world when it's needed i.e. buying a lambo

    Bitcoin liquidity 24/7/365 is very good

    Did you know bitcoin is going to be integrated in banks worldwide? Yes, that is correct, the biggest bank in Australia, biggest banks in Germany and over a thousand banks and credit unions in the US

    Ethereum, Solana and other L1 blockchain that provide smart contract platforms for building decentralized crypto banks, decentralized crypto exchanges, decentralized capital raises are to replace the traditional financial companies but only for use in the cryptos world

    USDT, USDC, MIM, DAI and other stablecoins are providing a stable currency. This has become akin to a money market but also fascinating that it's being used in places where they want the US $ but is difficult to get a hold of

    I see a lot of crypto people on Twitter talking about not cashing out to fiat when we go to a bear market and in fact many went to stablecoins during the major correction we had 6 months ago when btc went below $30K
    #32     Dec 16, 2021
    Sprout likes this.
  3. virtusa


    There is indeed a generational bias. Older people have in general more life experience, so more wisdom. I daytrade over 25 years, my son was trading crypto's for 2 years. It is clear who has more experience, although my son has a university degree and I have not.

    Parents educate their children in thousands of different things and thanks to that these children make less errors, or bad decisions while growing up. So, in general, it is better to listen to the parents than to the childrens opinion. When I was young I also thought I was smarter than my parents. I know now it is mostly not true. The moment that you will realize that too, will one day come (hopefully).

    I said many times on ET that I make more money daytrading the ES than I would have made with BTC. So I never missed the train, I caught the right one.

    98% of all addresses are smaller than 1 BTC which shows that "BTC can make you rich" is not valid for these 98% of all addresses. These 98% should have much more than” less than 1 BTC” by now. These people missed the boat too, or rather were sitting on the wrong boat. I don't even speak about all the people that lost money, or all they had, on crypto's.
    My son who is 25 years younger than me, quit trading crypto's after two years. He says now it was a very good decision. He is daytrading the ES, for which I gave him the knowledge.

    If you analyze the addresses carefully you will see that only after the 2017 high, people started to join as from that moment on the number of addresses went up. So the majority of crypto trader/holders, started after the high in december 2017. From that high at around $20,000 we went to $47,600 today. So 2.38 times higher in 4 years. Up 138% in 4 years is just 34.5% a year. Not that spectacular.

    The bagholders are the millions of 98% of small adresses from people who have no money and no experience or real knowledge about the financial markets, but dream to get rich starting from nickels and dimes. It is also the herd behavior. It is cool to have crypto's, just like it was, 30 years ago, cool to smoke when you were 15 years old, feeling you were a real man already. Like the Marlboro cowboy, who finally died from long cancer. Which proofs, after many years, that he took the wrong decision to become "a real man".
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2021
    #33     Dec 17, 2021
    Poljot, Leob and KCalhoun like this.
  4. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet we go again. The one eyed leading the blind :D
    #34     Dec 17, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  5. The only problem with hodling is you can never be certain of whether the trend will repeat itself or not. Everyday new things are happening in the crypto world. Some countries are making it legal, some are banning it while some are regulating it. There’s no guarantee that waiting will be rewarding.
    #35     Dec 17, 2021
  6. Ed48


    You mean the cycle of "85% crash followed by 2000% moon" is not guaranteed? Damn, I was counting on that for my retirement. :D
    #36     Dec 17, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  7. SunTrader


    Can you see money on your credit/debit card?

    If you have greenbacks in your wallet you can.

    Same thing. One is visible, one is virtual.
    #37     Dec 17, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  8. virtusa


    Indeed, most will hodl just one time to much.
    Like crossing a street when the traffic lights are red. it will good till it one time will go bad. End of game.

    We are now in a downtrend, but every crash starts with a downtrend. The only problem is that when it is clear that it is going to crash most people will wait till it recovers a bit. These are the people who will wipe out.

    It is called the boiled frog behavior.

    #38     Dec 17, 2021
  9. virtusa


    I know that I can cancel a wrong payment with my credit/debit card.
    Try to do that with crypto's...
    #39     Dec 17, 2021
  10. SunTrader


    Really? Every crash starts with a downtrend? Well duh have you ever seen a crash start with an uptrend. I've never seen a crash (stock market kind anyway) going uphill.
    #40     Dec 17, 2021
    johnarb likes this.