Since there are options on futures, it no brainer to take short positions as they happen. If traders studied more and chatted less, learn how to hedge open positions, so small or long term trends don't have to be massive losses on Bitcoin.
How addresses are generated does not change in any way how to make money with trading/investing BTC. I told that the only thing I had to proof was that almost nobody did take the ride from 2010 till today, so the video on Twitter was fake news. I took the 9899 biggest adresses and there where only 44 addresses that existed in 2010. Thats represents less than 1% of all the adresses I could find and include all addresses with more than 250BTC in wallet. So I was right that almost nobody made the ride 2010 till today. How addresses are generated is irrelevant for the discussion, and does not change that. Each address created has a starting day. Because Johnarb could not proof that I am wrong he changed the subject of the conversation to how addresses are created. Which is irrelevant for what the discussion was all about. The most important reason why crypto's are not interesting for me is that I could trade futures with big leverage already years (since 1997) before it was possible with crypto's. On top of that the leverage is still much bigger than the crypto futures today. I still outperform BTC by far. The average weekly return of BTC between 1/1/2015 and today is 1.3798%. That includes the 2 big spikes up in BTC. I just need to make 1 point net a week to beat BTC.
98% of all addresses are smaller than 1 BTC, so clearly no real traders, more gamblers who even have no idea what they are doing. They have no clue how they can hedge the risk with futures, and don't even understand probably what hedging or futures means. On top of that hedge 1 BTC or less makes no sense to me, and the standard contract size of the futures are even much bigger than 1 BTC. So the size is too big for 98% of all addresses. It would be funny to see how these crypto fans would try to find out when to hedge. The fans I know are surely not capable to find a good timing for the hedge.
idk, what dataset are you pulling from? https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-dormant_9y-bitcoin-addresses.html
Yeah, you are definitely NOT up-to-date with the current crypto market infrastructure - 100x on futures is accessible. Options are available, Future options are available. Isolated margin, cross-margin, sub-accounts, all available. This is unless you are US based, then you are excluded and constrained to the offerings of tradFi.
The same website as you use: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html I took all addresses, not just the dormant ones. Could catch 9899 pieces. You can see there that over 50% of all addresses have less than $50 in BTC.
Logical that I am not up to date. I made my decision years ago. Could trade many years before BTC with big leverage. I have much lower drawdowns in ES futures, which is very important. The crazy volatility of BTC does not work as good as the lower volatility of the ES. My trading works much better with ES. I did simulations with BTC when my son was still daytrading BTC. We both saw clearly the underperformance of BTC with my trading plan. I also don't trust BTC and all these precautions, like several addresses and wallets and all the other risks. I have no risks to see my money disappear, nobody is hacking my trading account or bank account, so why make life difficult if I can keep it simple. The risk of a huge crash in ES is also much smaller than in BTC.
One could always write down the information. It's hard to see, but in this example, I think he's writing "IOU 0.00008163 Bitcoin."