ok - miscommunication... 90% short referred to the fxcm sentiment. retail as a whole certainly was not that short.... but the indicator gave enough confidence to take action. we are talking about the same thing, roughly... you are just not familiar enough with this particular fxcm sentiment I use.. playing against the pot is legit, as long as you have access to information - if you can analyse the accounts trends in major exchanges, I suspect you will reach a similar conclusion that retail is all-in at this point... I prefer fxcm as it gives me an instant view. the 'pot' certainly has many different kinds of players in all sizes... that's another reason I prefer fxcm - retail is an excellent contrarian indicator.. otherwise if you have to analyse the professionals also, the picture gets blurry... some professionals know what they are doing, some are just as clueless as retail.... otherwise how do you play the 'pot' - it's just a number.... your trading style maybe different.... I rely heavily on sentiment, so I am sensitive to it.
Actually lol, I was just logging on to say the same thing to you. We are on the same page. I too play by judging sentiment. Our styles are actually quite similar I think. Where I beg to differ with you, is which way the scale is tipping here. The longer it stays relatively range-bound, I suspect more short positions will open. In that regard it might just be a bear trap, setting up for a good pop north. And thats not to belittle the logic of the posters here that put forth (the argument) that its basically trading air. In so many way its kinda like TSLA stock.... there's cults on both sides of the trade. In the near term, its going to move in the direction that takes the most amount of money from the most amount of people.... how that plays out is anybody's guess. That being said however, my intuition says the longer it flatlines here (+/- 700 points) there will be relatively few new long dollars entering while a pile of new short positions will open. Thats just my intuition though. I might be wrong. Make no mistake though.... its a game now, whether or not there is intrinsic value means nothing imo... just like TSLA stock is a game... and we see what that has done to the shorts over the last several years. Sure, someday TSLA will trade with a multiple worthy of a car company... but it might go to $700 first. Same with BTC. G/L either way if you trade it.
1. That is not true. First the world is a big place, plenty of more money if it was more stable,legal, practical. Second, people who bought at 18K probably got out at 14K, that doesn't mean they might not have come back at 7K again. 2. Smart money loses just as often as dumb money. HFs can't outperform a buy and hold SPY strategy and they took a bath in 2008 Everybody forgets the cost of keeping up price. The more valuable BTC is, the more money is needed to buy up the incoming 1800 coins every freaking day. That is why BTC won't go to the Moon. At 100K valuation every freaking day almost 200 million bucks is needed just to keep the price from falling. Where the hell do we fund that much money?
the news is relevant and irrelevant... when a death sentence is issued, it's just a matter of time for the execution. doesn't feel great to be long right now... but the picture is too clear to ignore... already discussed. currently fxcm has 77% long.... still crowded, still 'buying on the dip'.. there aren't even enough shorts to squeeze at the moment.
time like this, you can get a kick out of reddit/bitcoin.... the level of naivety, the desperation for moral support, and the house of cards.