If you went short around 0915, I hope you exited with a minimum 5 tick profit! Never let the market come back to your entry. An entry at 0915 5 minute bar would have been around 105 21 or so. A good exit would have been 105 16. (Thanks luc!)
Thursday 06 July 2006 Today we have (CST): Monster Employment Index 0500 BOE Announcement 0600 MBA Purchase Applications 0600 Challenger Job-Cut Report 0630 ECB Announcement 0645 Jobless Claims 0730 ISM Non-Mfg Survey 0900 Pending Home Sales Index 0900 EIA Petroleum Status Report 0930 Consider the activity this week any of these reports could have a market impact. Keep these reports in mind as you trade. As always, the 0730 report usually has the most impact, however, we have been getting a lot of market activity pre-open. The way I see it the following times will be important: 0500, 0630, 0730 and 0900. Price projection numbers: 106 28 106 20 106 15 106 03 105 28 ***This is a cluster. 105 28 is the most important.*** 105 26 105 24 105 12 Tipping Hand Prices: 106 10 105 20 105 12 No bias today. Market really solidified from yesterday's lows. So there is some strength. Bottom line I think there will be a significant 10 - 12 tick trade prior to the market open at 0720.
0831 Sold 2 ZB 105 28. Consider stop at 105 31. Looking for 105 20. Update 0836 May get stopped out. Fairly narrow range today. Update 0838 Cycle time coming up at 0855, just before 0900 report. Update 0839 Stopped out.
If prices consolidate back to 106 03 to 106 06, look to buy for a second attempt at the high of 106 10. I see prices testing 106 18 today. So far I haven't done a second trade today.
0944 Bought 2 ZB 106 06. First target is 106 13 followed by 106 18. Price lethargy and failure to penetrate 106 10 will lead to a probable reversal, i.e. go short.
1021 We are at 106 07. Let's see what this move from the low of 106 03 will do. 1035 is an important cycle time. 1043 Looking for at least 106 10. Watch carefully when prices approach that number, if strong then target stays at 106 13 followed by 106 18. If weak, consider exiting everything at 106 10 or better.
11:10 Closed ZB's at 106 07 for 1 tick profit. Notice the time above and the time the trade was initiated. One hour and 30 minutes of nothing. So, for those of you thinking about doing this full-time. Ask yourself how you will feel about a day like today? You have to go through days like today to get a day like yesterday or Friday of last week. Unfortunately, a day like today is a lot more common than a day like Friday of last week. Done for today.
Trade of the day looks to have been going long around 0905 CST. You could have gotten 106 00 to 106 03. You would have exited at the Tipping Hand number 106 10 (or 106 09 if your limit didn't get hit).
Friday 07 July 2006 Today we have (CST): Employment Situation 0730 EIA Natural Gas Report 0930 I really didn't like the lack of follow through action to the higher numbers yesterday. The run up was weak. The 60 minute ZB looks weak. My bias is short. As always, it depends on the 0730 report and whether it confirms the ADP report from earlier in the week. Price projection numbers: 106 28 106 20 106 15 106 03 105 28 ***This is a cluster. 105 28 is the most important.*** 105 26 105 24 105 12 Tipping Hand Prices: 106 10 105 20 105 12