California now has the worst COVID-19 spread in US

LacesOut · Dec 28, 2020

gwb-trading said:
Do the math! 'Died with COVID-19' means 'died from COVID-19'
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/dec/27/do-the-math-died-with-covid-19-means-died-from-cov/

Some people think that the number of COVID-19 deaths has been greatly exaggerated by the mistaken inclusion of people who died from other causes, while coincidentally infected by COVID. They’re wrong.

It is true that some people “with COVID-19” (who test positive), die from other causes, and some of those deaths could be mistakenly attributed to COVID-19. But it is simple to prove, with a bit of arithmetic, that such cases are a small percentage of the total reported COVID-19 deaths.

In normal times, the U.S. records an average of about 230,000 deaths per month, from a population of about 332 million. 230K/332M = 0.07% of the nation’s population. In other words, an average U.S. resident already has about a 0.07% chance of dying within the next month, without a COVID-19 diagnosis.

Let’s calculate that. Here are the latest U.S. figures (as of Dec. 23): 18,687,330 known cases, 330,841 deaths and 10,948,136 recoveries.

So the number of deaths as a percentage of known resolved cases (Case Fatality Rate, or “CFR”) is 330,841 / (10,948,136 + 330,841 deaths) = 2.9%.

(Aside: It is likely that as many as half of all recoveries were mild cases which went undetected, so the true infection fatality rate [“IFR”] might be as little as half the calculated CFR, i.e., it might be as low as 1.5%. But that does not affect these calculations, and it is still more than 10 times as deadly as typical seasonal flu.)

Another way to estimate the CFR is just from recent cases, by comparing the average daily death rate (2736 per day, calculated over the week of Dec. 15-21) to the average daily number of new known cases (212,990 per day calculated over the preceding one to two weeks). 2736 / 212,990 = 1.3%. (The good news is that the CFR is declining, but the bad news is that it’s still much worse than typical seasonal flu.)

About 88% of COVID-19 deaths occur within 28 days of diagnosis. So, multiplying the CFR by 0.88 yields the percentage of people who have a positive Covid diagnosis, who can be expected to die from COVID-19 within the next 28 days: That’s 2.6% averaged over the entire epidemic, or 1.1% averaged over a single recent week.

Dividing 0.07% by 1.1% = 6.4%. In other words, if you have a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, you’re 16 times more likely to die from COVID-19 in the next month than to die from something else.

Most coroners and medical examiners are competent, and so official causes of death are correct more often than not. But even if every case in which someone “with COVID-19” who died from a different cause were misattributed to COVID-19, it still would have only a small effect on the COVID-19 death statistics.

So, if someone tells you that the number of reported COVID-19 deaths is greatly exaggerated, due to misattributions of people who test positive for COVID-19, but who actually died from a different cause, they are wrong. They need to “do the math!”
More...

This whole exercise is Nareshkeit. Garbage math. And stupid too.
even those Colorado gunshot deaths counted as COVID deaths. I’m sure that you believe that’s reasonable.
https://www.kmov.com/news/colorado-...cle_297e3550-4131-11eb-9f01-ffe3e11d0f46.html

LacesOut · Dec 28, 2020

UsualName said:
Well actually I’m surprised you even acknowledged there is excess deaths. That’s something. We are actually tracking month to month, more total deaths than from the Spanish flu.
More...

Maybe. We have to wait years to get final numbers. Although I’m sure they will be as accurate as Biden’s vote tally.

LacesOut · Dec 28, 2020

UsualName said:
Well actually I’m surprised you even acknowledged there is excess deaths. That’s something. We are actually tracking month to month, more total deaths than from the Spanish flu.
More...

Hahahaha. Month to month from 100 years ago vs today. I mean, you are a math genius, right?
Spanish Flu killed what, 700k Americans...3% of the world?
COVID has killed 0.02% of the world, and that’s assuming the tests are accurate and the classifications are correct.
And we know they are not.

gwb-trading · Dec 28, 2020

LacesOut said:
Hahahaha. Month to month from 100 years ago vs today. I mean, you are a math genius, right?
Spanish Flu killed what, 700k Americans...3% of the world?
COVID has killed 0.02% of the world, and that’s assuming the tests are accurate and the classifications are correct.
And we know they are not.
More...

COVID has already killed 0.1% of the people in the U.S. — 1 in 1000 people — and it is just getting starting

LacesOut · Dec 28, 2020

gwb-trading said:
COVID has already killed 0.1% of the people in the U.S. — 1 in 1000 people — and it is just getting starting
More...

Yeah sure - all those people would still be alive today if it wasn’t for a virus. No one ever died before the Chinese Cold.
Let’s not forget that almost all deaths were old and infirmed.
When we get to 3%, let me know. Almost 30X less than the Spanish Flu.

ph1l · Dec 29, 2020

gwb-trading said:
Yeah.... let's discuss why there are no pictures of patients in COVID wards of hospitals...

Hiding Covid-19: How the Trump Administration Suppresses Photography of the Pandemic
https://theintercept.com/2020/12/27/covid-photography-hospitals/
More...

One can easily find pictures with ... a search engine.

Buy1Sell2 · Dec 29, 2020

wildchild said:
So California has the strictest lockdowns then gets the worst spread.

Today
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/arti...9-cases-data-CDC-worst-states-US-15829422.php

California is now reporting the highest number of new daily COVID-19 cases per capita in the country.

Last week, the state reported the nation's fourth highest number of daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents over a seven day period, but California jumped to first place when the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its case per capita tracker Saturday.

Dec 7
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-hospitalisations-deaths-stay-at-home-order
Millions of Californians put under strict Covid lockdown

More...

Yep. It sure does seem like neither masks nor lock-downs have any effect on slowing or stopping the spread of Kung Flu.

Buy1Sell2 · Dec 29, 2020

Here4money said:
imagine how much worse it'd be with whackjob measures like Florida?
More...

Actually quite a bit better as has been shown in analysis of data from both states.

Market_Diver · Dec 29, 2020

Florida COVID-19 fatalities data included man who died in motorcycle accident

"A man who died in a motorcycle accident was counted among the COVID-19 related deaths in the state, leading to questions about whether the state's reported coronavirus death rates are accurate"

https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...uded-man-who-died-in-motorcycle-accident.html

wrbtrader · Dec 29, 2020

If you're concentrating on the number of Covid-19 deaths (rising, declining) or individual questionable Covid-19 cases as a determining factor...you're already too late or intentionally trying to misinform.

Instead, focus on the increasing / decreasing infections, hospitalizations, ICU's, capacity levels, doctors/nurses shortages and recovery. These are the numbers that ultimately will be the key variables that city or state health officials will look at and decide public health policies...including restrictions.

wrbtrader