Some of these "traders" have no clue how economics or trade works. Neither does Trump. This reminds me of 2009-2013 on here when "traders" floated all sorts of stupid theories about the economy to explain why the bull market was impossible and lows would be revisited.
I didn't mean you specifically when I said the US. There are a lot of americans living from pay cheque to pay cheque who are going to suffer from the increased cost of living.
China has given up on communism long time ago. What it's doing is just trying to make sure their ass stays on the throne.
This is very much possible. I think Trump will create alternatives like trade deal with India. India may offer Trump some kind of formula based trade balance like buying US natural gas or US farm products or US defence supplies as a part of its trade deal. India would like to fill the gap given its growth phase. Even USA has incentive in developing supply chains from a different geography. Once this happens Chinese will rush to the negotiating table. You may think it is difficult to replicate vendor chains. But even Chinese companies want to set up factories in India and they cannot do that easily because Indian government has put strong restrictions on Chinese investments in India during the last five years due the border clash the two nations had. So Chinese companies are now ready to become junior partners in India's manufacturing set ups. But if an American or European company wants to do business in India, there are no such restrictions. Effectively India is playing the game with the Chinese in Chinese style. I think Trump has these things in his calculations given the closeness between all right wing leaders across the democratic world. Like Trump, Modi, Meloni Netanyahu etc.
i don’t get how people are so stupid, even for indians. look at the numbers, india entire foreign reserves is just shy of 700 billions, less than us china trade in a single year. where do you find the money to buy all the expensive us stuff? right now india is buying energy on the cheap from russia, and rightly so. whatever you wish to achieve, it will take india 40-50 years high growth to contemplate any alternative.
Talking of stupidity. World economy is at a reset. USA will see slowdown irrespective of tariffs. China will form an economic alliance of its own. Another cold war-like situation. Coming to India's growth, look at standard of living , not in the conventional ways. US dollar is hyped up. It has to fall in value in the long term. So India's USD reserves do not matter in the next 40-50 years (the time frame you mentioned.) FYI, US is slowing on innovation. China is export dependent and its biggest customers are US and EU. EU has more problems than USA. Go figure. 40 years down the line, the world is going to look much different. Throw your traditional ideas into the trash can. I see that you are from NYC. About 24 years ago, an American man in NYC enlightened me on how the world changes in the future. And today I do understand that he was so right. Much of USA GDP is built on buying goods and services that Americans do not really need. Unsustainable! As far as India goes, India unfortunately became the back office of the world. This created a big rich and poor divide in our country. (White collar vs. Blue collar types) The only way to fix this is to increase manufacturing in India. Exports or no exports India will focus on manufacturing. If USA wants to import from India or develop alternate supply chains or would want to develop supply chains within USA is their headache. As an Investor, I am less inclined to invest on export dependent industries. I don't even need to look at 40-50 year time frame. I can tell you that Indians will do much better in just 20 years from now starting with where ever they are now. As far as progress in western world during that time, I don't want to speculate, since not-so-stupid people like you must have figured it out.
I further think Trump is trying to save the USA from this mess. How he executes his game is what we need to see. His opponents prefer status quo since they are entrenched in the system.