The FOMO in me can only sigh . Technically, commodity prices should drop with rising interest rates, but that obviously ain't happening here. I wonder if it will drop once the Fed starts cutting rates.
Will drop extremely hard like they always do. No need to chase another fomo play The entire market is in fomo mode and In due time you'll see the next most beautiful collapse again But don't chase this cocoa. It may rally more but the collapse will be epic !!!
I been selling short/hedged for awhile regarding cocoa, often taking loss on futures and taking overall profit on options. 46 year all time highs, so ripe for plunge down, can't wait. It like when crude reached 147 and plunged down in the 30"s, zippy doo daaaa Long term trading, you have to get use to making little money till extremes. Better than taking hundreds of trades each week scalping/day trading.
Found this The monthly chart dating back to 1970 shows the rally that took the nearby ICE cocoa futures to $4,110 per ton. Cocoa futures eclipsed the 2011 $3,826 peak and rose to the highest price in forty-five years. In 1978, cocoa futures peaked at $4,142, the next technical target. Above there, the 1977 $5,379 high is the upside milestone.
I was really hoping for oil to break above 100 last year, after the run it had all oil bulls said oil was going higher higher and higher along with energy, fast forward some months later and energy and oil have done nothing but drop. But I really would like 110 117 123 128 132 145 167 200 oil so I could short it back down below 50. You would think with all the green movements planned and ev car entering the roads by the millions that oil prices would be below 20 but nope they stay perfectly above 70!!
We use too much plastic and makeup. Ergo, oil won't get back to 20 any time soon, barring another worldwide lockdown by a new Fauci fool...
Wasn't there a guy on here some time back planning to short this around 3300? Haven't heard from him anymore regarding his short .
Well, it'll likely come down pretty soon IMO because consumers, especially in the west, can't go through their day without their favorite sweets. That said, the daily chart shows the price going parabolic for the last 2 weeks, so I'll be monitoring to see whether that will end up as just another typical blow-off top. If so, ya better get your stinky bear suit out of the closet.
Could be at a top, at least a short term one, in 3 trading days or so. TD Sell Setup9 was at day 6 on Friday. It would recycle a Sell Sequential13 but basically same deal either way. I'd look for a correction of some sort if a key low is broken at that point. Nice move back in Sept'23 when a prior Sell Sequential (far left) triggered.