It's not really totally new, but after hearing of all the back-lash since last year, I decided to finally take a look at what Taleb said that is getting so many bulls all tied up in a knot. For those who are interested:
Not only do I not like BTC, I dont' like people who like BTC Very long winded way to say BTC is a con game
He didn't think his thesis was important enough to make a decent, clear recording and clear speech. Makes me dislike people who like the USD because of it's ponzi characteristics. First off, he frames BTC as a security and expects to get some cash flow from this security. So already he's a bit dishonest. The value of BTC is as a reliable place to store value. It is less valuable as a way to move value, but it's ability to move stored value, reliably, is better than several other ways of storing value...gold for example. Harder to move. Real estate, hard to move by comparison. BTCs value as a safe storage place will remain as long as there is an internet, and as long as a few diverse nodes are running the full block chain, and as long as wallets can't be hacked, and as long as the code, which is open source, remains basically unchanged. Securities are a place to store value too, with some ease of movement in and out of the USD. Securities are not as secure, imo, as they depend on a relatively small (centralized) group of people, who do have an interest in keeping trades secrets, but who could also screw up their companies by doing stupid things. As a result, they go up and down, sometimes wildly, and oftentimes for reasons not even related to how the small core of people run the company. Speaking of which, BTC is now almost 1:1 correlated with the Nasdaq/QQQ, and even with the SPX/SPY it has an uncannily high correlation. So for reasons not related to it's constant, solid value as a store of value, it goes up and down like US securities as of late. Why does the QQQ go down? Apparently it is counter correlated with the USD as indexed by the DXY. For some reason, the USD is seen as a better store of value than securities, and even BTC...because in a world where inflation has spread to every nations currency, the USD is expected to outperform whatever other nations are doing with their currencies. The common denominator, why capital sloshes around into one kind of store of value to the next is capital is looking for a reliable store of value. The upward price of any of the stores of value depends on how popular it is at the moment, it's popularity determined by so many talking heads, talking up their preferred stores of value during special times of economic experience. BTC will rise steadily as it is gradually seen as the best store of value, cash flow be damned.
The trading strategy is exactly the same whether it is worth zero or a million; ie buy low sell high sell high buy low
In the popularity and confidence in it's ability to store, safely and reliably, whatever value is registered on it's blockchain. There's value, in other words, in having a place to store value, besides underneath the mattress. If you have a safety deposit box inside a big brick bank, for example, you are going to pay monthly for that...because it's valuable to have a store of value. BTC price will outperform other traditional stores of value as it is gradually realized it is perhaps the best store of value. So, while it may be 1:1 correlated with the Nasdaq, it will gradually outperform the Nasdaq as a store of value. Yes, the Nasdaq is functioning as a store of value.
The value of people points. People accumulate points to the degree that they offer value to other people. Points are exchanging all the time, and some people accumulate an excess amount of points, more than they need to survive at the moment. Those points are often kept track of using properties, commodities, rare things, and national currencies. Those are stores of value that depend on popularity and confidence. So is BTC. As people realize which of these stores is the best storage, the best storage will become more popular, and the others will become less popular, and so, less in demand, which will check, or even suppress their prices compared to the best store. BTC stores, reliably, the points people have accumulated, which represent the value they have offered others.
Geez, now you are getting into the virtual currency systems of MMORPGs like Everquest. Let me ask you the question another way. How many BTC would you accept from me to buy your current home? I am offering you 1 BTC. Will you sell me your home for 1 BTC, RIGHT NOW?