https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/fixed-mindsets-might-be-why-we-dont-understand-statistics/ The (Bayesian) answer would be a lot simpler in Boolean terms...... In T/A, the "fixed thinking" displaces whole sets of outcomes that fail to be ascribed to the immediate study -- applications of Normal Distributions to data that are intrinsically linked from one observation to the next, or conclusions that gleefully link two characteristic outcomes as sequential cause and effect when no evidence is manifest that any causative principle was at work, or which might've caused the other, or indeed, should the (actual) order be reversed? Eeeesh! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet Fixed thinking. It'll get ya.
Interesting article. The example of the heroin addict is a bit sloppy. It states 10 out of 10 heroin addict would have fresh needle marks on their arms. This isn't the case with another set of heroin addicts whom needle in between their toes or other areas of the body to conceal they are in fact heroin addicts. The other example is about a set of folks whom have fresh needle marks on their arm. What folks would have similar needle marks on their arm that look similar to heroin addicts needle marks but are not addicts? Not to say they don't exist but nothing is coming to mind that would fit that profile. That's why I enjoy applying Bayesian logic. Sorting observations into logic piles of like to like. Once one gets a true, it's possible to build off true - same with false. Any grey area is further distinguished into subsets within a spectrum where the classification is another boolean result. One can always know that they know in this context. As for cause and effect, my operating point is that the observable order is reversed. Effect is noted before cause. Any cause that becomes associated with the effect is based upon a past observation that may or may not have the same set of factors influencing the outcome in the current observable frame. With that said, it's my experience that the operation of the market is not random although it appears that way to an undifferentiated mind. However that differentiation is achieved is a two edged sword - it's advantage and disadvantage depending on context. A shortcut isn't one until one has experienced the long way. Both experiences are necessary but one is more fulfilling than the other in terms of sequence of experience.