Case fatality rate of COVID-19 The case fatality rate (CFR) is the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases. The CFR can be a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease. We explain this in detail at OurWorldInData.org/mortality-risk-covid https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid Click the link see how useless it was back when you were going on and on about it...
Why don't you quote the entire article which explains information in detail instead of a single line out of context. The article outlines "Understanding the case fatality, crude mortality, and the infection fatality rate". The information on being a "poor measure" is because deaths lag cases. - "In ongoing outbreaks, people who are currently sick will eventually die from the disease. This means that they are currently counted as a case, but will only eventually be counted as a death too. With the COVID-19 outbreak, it can take several weeks for people to go from first symptoms to death. This means that the CFR in the early stages is an underestimate of what it will be when the outbreak has run its course." The other reason being that CFR is not a direct summary of the real risk of death - "There are two reasons why we would expect the CFR not to represent the real risk. One of them would tend to make the CFR an overestimate – the other would tend to make it an underestimate." The reality is that CFR is the measurement used by the scientific community when defining death statistics of a disease. It is especially beneficial in studies when the pandemic has run its course and the data set is complete.
I don't need to... I proved you to be wrong again... far from nonsense there are many reasons using the CFR as you did... was wrong. "But it’s important to note that it is the ratio between the number of confirmed deaths from the disease and the number of confirmed cases, not total cases. That means that it is not the same as – and, in fast-moving situations like COVID-19, probably not even very close to – the true risk for an infected person." and.... https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid Why the Case Fatality Rate does not reflect the risk of dying from COVID-19 There is a straightforward question that most people would like answered. If someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is that person to die? This question is simple, but surprisingly hard to answer. The key point is that the case fatality rate (CFR) – the most commonly discussed measure – is not the answer to the question. The main reason why it does not answer that question is that the CFR relies on the number of confirmed cases, and many cases are not confirmed. In order to understand what the case fatality rate can and cannot tell us about a disease outbreak such as COVID-19, it’s important to understand why it is difficult to measure and interpret the numbers. The case fatality rate isn’t constant: it changes with the context Sometimes commentators talk about the CFR as if it’s a single, steady number: an unchanging fact about the disease. But it’s not a biological constant; instead, it reflects the situation in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population. The probability that someone dies from a disease doesn’t just depend on the disease itself, but also on the treatment they receive, and on the patient’s own ability to recover from it. This means that the CFR can decrease or increase over time, as responses change; and it can vary by location and by the characteristics of the infected population, such as age, or sex. For instance, older populations would expect to see a higher CFR from COVID-19 than younger ones. The CFR of COVID-19 differs by location, and has changed during the early period of the outbreak The case fatality rate of COVID-19 is not constant. This was clear right from the start of the pandemic. You can see that in the chart below, first published in the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), in February 2020.10 It shows the CFR for COVID-19 in several locations in China during the early stages of the outbreak, from the beginning of January to 20th February 2020. You can see that in the earliest stages of the outbreak the CFR was much higher: 17.3% across China as a whole (in yellow) and greater than 20% in the center of the outbreak, in Wuhan (in blue). But in the weeks that followed, the CFR declined, reaching as low as 0.7% for patients who first showed symptoms after February 1st. The WHO reported that that was because “the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak”. You can also see that the CFR was different in different places. By 1st February, the CFR in Wuhan was still 5.8% while it was 0.7% across the rest of China. This shows that what we said about the CFR generally – that it changes from time to time and place to place – is true for the CFR of COVID-19 specifically. When we talk about the CFR of a disease, we need to talk about it in a specific time and place – the CFR in Wuhan on 23rd February, or in Italy on 4th March – rather than as a single unchanging value. Case fatality ratio for COVID-19 in China over time and by location, as of 20 February 2020 – Figure 4 in WHO (2020)11 There are two reasons why the case fatality rate does not reflect the risk of death If the case fatality rate does not tell us the risk of death for someone infected with the disease, what does it tell us? And how does the CFR compare with the actual mortality risk? There are two reasons why we would expect the CFR not to represent the real risk. One of them would tend to make the CFR an overestimate – the other would tend to make it an underestimate. When there are people who have the disease but are not diagnosed, the CFR will overestimate the true risk of death. With COVID-19, we think there are many undiagnosed people. As we saw above, in our discussion on the difference between total and confirmed cases (here), we do not know the number of total cases. Not everyone is tested for COVID-19, so the total number of cases is higher than the number of confirmed cases. Whenever there are cases of the disease that are not counted, the probability of dying from the disease is lower than the reported case fatality rate. Remember our imaginary scenario with 10 deaths and 100 cases. The CFR in that example is 10% – but if there actually 500 cases (and we’ve simply missed 400 of them due to lack of testing), then the real risk (the IFR) is just 2%. Or to summarize in one sentence. If the number of total cases is higher than the number of confirmed cases, then the ratio between deaths and total cases is smaller than the ratio between deaths and confirmed cases.12 Importantly, this means that the number of tests carried out affects the CFR – you can only confirm a case by testing a patient. So when we compare the CFR between different countries, the differences do not only reflect rates of mortality, but also differences in the scale of testing efforts. A second consideration is especially important in the early stages of an outbreak: When some people are currently sick and will die of the disease, but have not died yet, the CFR will underestimate the true risk of death. In ongoing outbreaks, people who are currently sick will eventually die from the disease. This means that they are currently counted as a case, but will only eventually be counted as a death too. With the COVID-19 outbreak, it can take several weeks for people to go from first symptoms to death. This means that the CFR in the early stages is an underestimate of what it will be when the outbreak has run its course.
Wildchild with a great call. Can any other of you 'Elitetraders' show me when you made a call as good as this?
To be fair, you know fuck all about covid but you got Trump's number pretty good back in 2016. Bet you foresaw him calling the WWII fighters losers and all. Well done.
Wildchild killed it with the .6 to .7 call. You probably still think the death rate is around 3.4%. You lose.