Defining a Strong vs Weak Trend

Discussion in 'Trading' started by metatrader54, Jul 11, 2019.

  1. upload_2019-7-11_15-35-34.png

    Above is a chart of 2 different uptrends, ASSUME THAT BOTH ARE SAME TIMEFRAMES, which one is stronger to you? And why? What is your definition of a strong trend?

    I do have my own definitions that I use to trade, but would be interesting to hear what others have to say.

    I'd say the left one is way stronger or "stable", it may have weaker impulses but the number of highs give indication that you could buy now and there would be a high chance it would form another high.

    These are just 2 examples, I'm sure there's many many more different types of trends that can be seen from the chart, besides comparing the two, what other types of trends are strong to you?
    murray t turtle and varaamo like this.
  2. maxinger


    In real world, market doesn't move that smoothly.

    See yesterday Germany buxl bond chart.
    This chart is considered as rather trendy and relatively easy to trade.
    Even if you traded with one lot,
    you could easily earn > $3K.

    Markets are not always trendy, and its movement could be very limited.

    Last edited: Jul 11, 2019
  3. tomorton


    I use simple tactics to gauge trend strength. For me, the % rise is immaterial. Momentum is interesting but I'm most concerned about historic consistency. I track criteria such as the following -

    last close above/below 50EMA?
    20EMA above/below 50EMA?
    50EMA sloping upwards/downwards?
    number of recent consecutive:
    weekly closes above/below 50EMA
    weekly candlesticks overlapped by last full week's range
    weekly candlesticks wholly above/below 50EMA
    number of:
    weekly candlesticks breached by 50EMA in last 3 mths.
  4. Agreed. I see 2 nice trends (kind of like my picture) in the chart where I would have traded on the pullbacks.
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2019
  5. vinc


    very informative picture making us realize that there is something on them...
    now before going into all the nuances between strong and weak trend it wouldn't be out of bounds to define a trend at all..
    looking at this picture please tell us WHERE DO YOU THINK THE TREND STARTED ,regardless whether it's weak or strong..just put an arrow there showing us the moment it started..
    tommcginnis and yg10 like this.
  6. Good points.
  7. Buy1Sell2


    Trend on the left is much much stronger and is expected to continue.
    _eug_ likes this.
  8. tommcginnis


    If a "trend" can be taken as a post-hoc assessment of a consistent, non-random move, then the zig-zag on the right needed only three stimuli to go from the beginning to the end. Three!
    Who knows if they were even related? Was the result only incidentally similar one to the others?

    The zig-zag on the left needed ten, and reacted consistently, as well. That's a pattern worth calling a pattern.

    Nothing conclusive, but certainly enough to gather attention and a second look.
    metatrader54 likes this.
  9. Lay channel lines over the price chart. The one with the steeper slope will be the stronger.

    Doubt that labeling a trend strong or less-strong is of any value. You should be trading within its paramaters, regardless.
  10. speedo


    The one on the right is stronger as it has a steeper slope. Which one is more favorable to trade would depend on your particular trade plan.
    #10     Jul 11, 2019
    murray t turtle and metatrader54 like this.