Defining a Strong vs Weak Trend

Nice chart, you can tell at the end of the chart the trend is weakening.

 

I would have traded the first half and second half of the chart differently. But still nice charts.

 

Agreed, I actually took a long at the last pullback and took profits at the peak before CPI came out.

 

From a mathematical and signal processing perspective,
Left has a higher signal to noise ratio...
Right has a steeper slope...

From a financial engineering perspective, lower variance (left) is often preferred.
Lower reward, but lower risk. Think portfolio diversification.

Many traders like high risk/reward/variance trades (e.g. extreme gaps).

Depends on your definition of stronger.

Either way, both are purely theoretical constructs.
Not much to draw any strong conclusions.

 

Strong positive trend was defined as:
1. price above daily pivot
2. positive A/D
3. 5 ema/above 20 ema on 15 min chart
4. 5 ema/above 20 ema on 1 hr chart
5. 5 ema/above 20 ema on daily chart

but it is impossible IMO to formulate a strategy based on the above unless it is sustained and that cannot be assessed in real time.

 

Golden nuggets:

1. Use longer sampling timeframes when you are modeling for trend, and

2. In a Bullish market, you want to see higher highs and higher lows. Conversely in a Bearish market, you want to see lower lows and lower highs.

3. For maximum resolution - always check the Weekly. Sometimes I even use the Monthly. Model in multiple time frames. Always.

 

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Exactly, since its same time frame.Stable or orderly trends like SPY almost never make what QQQ does.
My comments do not apply to bitcon; fundamentals do matter, even on a daily chart. Stocks/ETFs never move like oil on WED. May enter/exit the weaker left trend with less slippage; not a prediction, not long TSLA or DB,

 

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Sounds like a hint for fundamentals, not near as helpful as price. Stocks/ETFs never move like oil on WED....................................................................................................

 

I apologize for straying a bit from the original post. I'm curious to know what rule of thumb others use ... how quickly after the open (on average) they wait before determining a short term trend is established ... say 3 minutes, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, etc? I know it varies, but i keep trying to nail down a best number Thanks for your comments.