I really don't mind if price runs away after I exit. Never have. I just prefer that higher win rate over higher risk to reward, and like I said, I get way more frustrated by being up let's say 25 ticks and it falls back to zero. To use the obvious baseball metaphor, I'm more comfortable being a 'singles hitter' rather than every trade being a home run or a strike out. Maybe I'll change eventually on that, we'll see.
Finding the trend is a technical exercise, because the price and the trend don't always go in the same direction. Makes no difference what time frame you are working in. The definition of a whipsaw is the trend re-exerts its force over the price.
It means if you are going to trade by following the price, price pattern, support-resistance etc. without regard for the applicable trend, don't be surprised when you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade.
Okay but that kinda seems to miss the whole point of my thread here. I obviously agree with that statement which is why I was asking for some pointers on how to identify a trend quicker and better. Do you have any specific pointers on that?
All trends and perceived trends are only evident in past hindsight. Far, Done and completed hindsight. In real time, to analyze a trend start, requires an immense understanding of the overall future framework market map. Which has to be considered at the opening bell consisting of a range of variables and elements to draw up your generalized image of expectation Like I previously mentioned, everything out there....all those random indicators....are rather meaningless. They only look sexy and intelligent out of sheer coincidences and circumstances in past hindsight without having an understanding of depth. They're all surface tracing indicators only
DD, Some things to consider when trying to assess "is it trending": Markets will "wait for news" before a trends happen or reverse the trend. The Bond open will often give a clue to the days trend The Open itself tells a lot. The previous days action also give clues. So instead of looking, myopically for a trend in the thick of it, back up a bit and wait for the market to show it going to trend, or is going to fluctuate (not trend) THEN Make your assessment. i.e. don't try to make the assessment before the breakout. Yesterday was a good example: if it was not trending after the first few attempts before 7:30 AM PST, then good chance it was not going to much for the rest of the day. And indeed it was a chop day as most of the waves collapsed. Also of course we are consolidating near the ES top, so a lot of distribution going on, versus accumulation or dumping. Hope that helps,
Not the ES. It was clearly signaling an uptrend 1st hour of RTH @ 1030am EDT. Above initial balance point and closed (@ 10:30am) comfortably up from 9:30am open - 10 pts or so. But which didn't come to pass (it happens) after it went sideways for 2 more hours then sold off - especially after it broke below Globex and RTH VWAP's and 1st 5 min RTH OR:-