Very well put! Perhaps LTCM also encountered two other unexpected/ untested critical factors: Cornering the markets unknowingly, and Reflexivity by the unified actions from other major competing players. Just 2 cents!
that's twice now you have got it. The idea is not to predict what the next number will be, but to predict how the bettor will bet on what the next number will be.
so does probability exist? I'll leave that to the mathematicians, since I am not one. But will people probably do what they have always done? I say yes, because I am one.
it is so straightforward yet still so undiscovered by many. the framework matters, not the values within it.
I don't know that it's undiscovered, though you may be right. Probably more the belief that the lessons of centuries no longer matter.
Yes, but tell it to nobody. I mean nobody else, because i am nobody, so you don't have to tell it to me because I know it already. I hope you understand what I mean.
No, just about traders trading. Behavior. That is, after all, the purpose of an auction market: to facilitate trade.
No not genius. Weird or different is a better description. If you use market behavior it is necessary to be weird or different. If not you are part of the market (or mass) behavior that you want to exploit. Being part of it makes it impossible to take advantage of it, because you should then exploit your own behavior. You should be different from the mass or not use market behavior strategies.