Post-conviction polls offer hints about impact on the 2024 race Republican officials who assume the public agrees with them about Donald Trump's guilty verdict might be surprised by new polls on the matter. June 3, 2024, 7:44 AM MDT By Steve Benen Before a jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felonies, there was a fair amount of polling on the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election. There was, however, an important caveat hanging overhead. As we discussed last week, pollsters routinely ask the public for their opinions about things that have happened. The task becomes a little trickier when pollsters ask about expected opinions related to things that haven’t yet happened. Now that the trial has concluded, and the public knows that the former president has been found guilty, the survey data takes on an even greater significance. This is not to say that all of the caveats are gone — early data can sometimes be less reliable as the public takes time to digest major developments — but those eager to know what Trump’s guilty verdict means in an electoral context can and should take note of the latest data. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the latest surveys, each of which were released over the last couple of days. ABC News/Ipsos poll: In this survey, a 50% plurality said that the jury in Trump’s case made the right call; a 51% majority concluded that the former president intentionally did something illegal in this case; and a 49% plurality believes that the presumptive Republican nominee should end his candidacy as a result of the guilty verdict. The same data found President Joe Biden with a two-point lead over Trump, after having found the two major-party candidates tied before the trial. Reuters poll: In this survey, 10% of registered Republican voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump now that he’s been found guilty of felonies. Similarly, 25% of registered independent voters said the same thing. The same data also found Biden leading by two points. Morning Consult poll: In this survey, a 54% majority approved of the verdict in Trump’s case, and 15% of Republican voters said the former president should end his candidacy as a result of being found guilty. Also notable: Roughly 7 in 10 voters in this poll said Trump’s other pending criminal trials should be resolved before voters cast ballots in the fall. CBS News/YouGov poll: In this survey, the outlet recontacted the Americans polled before the verdict. While few changed their minds, the results showed that a 54% majority agreed that Trump’s New York trial was fair; a 57% majority agreed with the jury’s verdict; and a 51% majority said Trump is unfit for the presidency. When House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse a few weeks ago to show his support for his party’s presumptive nominee, the Louisiana Republican made a bold assumption about public attitudes. The GOP congressional leader began by dismissing the trial as a “sham,” before adding, “I think everybody in the country can see that for what it is.” It was a dubious assertion at the time. It’s worse now. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...polls-offer-hints-impact-2024-race-rcna155152
I'm not so sure. I believe the Gaza issue may have pissed off a fair number of democrats who, if they don't vote for Trump out of anger, will just stay home. I dunno, paranoia maybe.
Hilarious, Trumpers here at ET and elsewhere online had stated multiple times that "Nobody is watching the Hush Money Criminal Trial"..."It's not important". Now after 34x felony convictions of Trump... Trumpers now know this is serious...it's not a fucking game...these are felony convictions that are putting an end to a pattern of Trump's criminal behavior since 1970. No bullshit propaganda and no bullshit conspiracy theories will make these felonies go away because Trump is no longer above the law. Also, they know the appeal process is going to take years to get to the courts of appeal and Trump is guaranteed to fuck that up too. At the end of the day, it's now obvious with their attention devoted to defending Trump after his criminal convictions...they no longer say "Nobody is watching the Hush Money Criminal Trial", "It's not important" or "Nobody Cares". The reality, Trumpers do give a fuck and hopefully Trump spends too much time talking about being a victim and how he's the one to fix America...ignoring he's the poster child of what's wrong with America. wrbtrader
it's not the evidence that makes it politiical. Its the justice department pursuing "justice" on an individual who - only hurt himself - and was "guilty" of doing something that many other politicians have done, but never were charged for. I'm not sure why I have to explain this to someone normally a highly intelligent individual. Did someone hack your account?
I suppose that's where we got the phrase "it's not the crime it's the coverup", right? I mean, you are referring to the fraud, not the payoff, right?
Marcotte knocks another one outta the park in today's commentary "Don't let MAGA theatrics fool you: Donald Trump's 34 felony convictions are not helping him "If guilty verdicts are so great for Trump, why are Republicans cheering the delay of his other three trials?"