Discussion in 'Stocks' started by FCXoptions, Jul 20, 2015.

  1. DD, does anybody have any thoughts they care to share on it?

    I haven't paid attention to it before, but just stumbled across it today. Looks to me like after this big drop and consolidation, it might be ready to make a move higher.

    I have just briefly skimmed their recent events and looks like somebody wanted to split the business up but the CEO fought them on the issue and since that occurred it has been in a decline.
  2. redbox


    Foxcatcher was a great movie, loved Steve Carrel. Oh sorry wrong forum.
  3. xandman


    Still mostly Chemicals, right? You would think they been getting cost savings from lower oil prices like the airline business.

    I just don't think this business cycle will provide us with that late cycle materials/energy rally. (Disclosure: I didn't expect a rally in Grains, either. ;)) At some point, everybody will be herded into Defensive Sector investment while denying a bear market has started. Then surprise!, there will be hindsight reporting that a recession started 6 months ago. Though, I am still hoping for a frenzied bull in Tech.

    Is it coming up on your value screens? I only become a value investor during recessions. Definitely looks like a short trend play. If your going to make it an interest-hike-cost-of-production-inputs-value-play, you will be sorely disappointed.
  4. Brighton


    The revenue pie is one-third or more in agriculture-related businesses. They've sold some large, commodity chemical businesses. I don't have a strong opinion on the overall outlook but I think the agricultural results might be so-so unless grain prices really start ripping again. Also, if POET-DSM and Abengoa are any guide, du Pont is going to lose their ass for the next few years on their cellulosic ethanol plant in Nevada, Iowa.
    FCXoptions likes this.
  5. xandman


    you only come around when ags have moved. so, is it time for me to put on a 3 month iron condor?
    FCXoptions likes this.
  6. Brighton


    Ha! It seems that way; probably because I spend time in front of a computer wondering why things like wheat overshoot to the downside, then upside, and now almost a round turn within a period of about 30 days.

    Syngenta might be a better candidate for selling a put spread. Options on US ADRs are thin but have decent IV for a large company, and a firmer floor, I think, because of the Monsanto bid and a pledge to keep fighting for a takeover of SYT.
    xandman likes this.
  7. xandman


    Seems like merger season, alright. Companies are choking on buybacks before the financing goes away. Much easier to cook the books in a merger.
  8. xandman


  9. xandman


    From CNBC - JPMorgan Chase upgraded the chemical producer's stock to "overweight" from "neutral," saying that despite a preponderance of negative factors, the shares appear to be undervalued based on valuations for other high quality agricultural companies.
    FCXoptions likes this.