Effect of Elections on Market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ayn Rand, Nov 3, 2022.

  1. Ayn Rand

    Ayn Rand

    I do not think there can be any kind of rally before the Election. However, after the elections I am unsure of how the results will effect the market. Anyone have any thoughts on how a Republican sweep will effect the market?
  2. smallfil


    Hard to tell really. Much better to just follow the trend. Good trading is reactive and not predictive because it is far harder to predict what will happen next. Much easier to follow the trend once, it has been established. Trends do last longer than most traders think.
    Ayn Rand likes this.
  3. ET180


    Markets like gridlock.
  4. Overnight


    Indeed, a split congress has usually been good for markets. But when was the last time we had a split congress with 8.5% inflation?

    All bets are off.
  5. There's a high likelihood that markets will rally regardless of who gets in. I looked at the historical data for the SPX for all midterm election years since 1930 and if you bought the day after the election and held for about 250 days the average return was 14.6% with 91% of the years positive (21 out of 23). The negative years were 1930 and 1938.
  6. Overnight


    None of them had Powell + high inflation. Your stats are about to get buggered.
  7. Nine_Ender


    Yes, this kind of stat I've been aware of while I see the usual crew on here explaining why we'll crash contrary to most historical precedents.
  8. Sprout


    With over 250 election deniers boosting the big lie as part of the red wave candidates, we’ll have greater concerns then the market.

    The red wave also wants to kill SS and Medicare, who are gonna be buying products and services when boomers start retiring?

    Cuddles likes this.
  9. Ayn Rand

    Ayn Rand

    Really interested in the day/week after the election - Nov 9th.
  10. TheDawn


    Usually elections have very little effects on the market I find. I haven't witnessed any huge market movements either before or after the elections.
    #10     Nov 4, 2022